President Donald Trump's rallies are drawing ever-smaller crowds, even as he insists there are "thousands waiting outside." His approval ratings have fallen low enough to register even in Fox News polling, and it has become clear that candidates in red-state America do not want him holding rallies where they must appear. The stakes are concrete: November's midterm elections will determine whether Republicans keep control of the House and Senate.

On Friday's episode of "The Daily Blast," The New Republic's Greg Sargent, who hosts the podcast, and political scientist Tom Schaller discussed the "hopium" — positive information that functions like a drug — that Trump is being fed.

A Business Standard report noted: "Trump remains convinced that his dominant place in the Republican Party is enough to mitigate a tough political climate. But a grim mood has set in around the White House, which has been rocked by turnover, tension among internal factions and anxiety over what happens should Republicans lose legislative control in Washington, according to 16 current and former administration officials and allies of Trump's..."

Schaller, who authored a piece on MAGA culture for the Public Notice Substack, explained that if Democrats are able to eke out a blowout, he fully expects GOP defections to begin. "We've already seen early waves of it," he said, citing the seven House Republicans who came out against the Iran war.

Sargent read through a New York Times report from this week that said: "As the elections approach, Mr. Trump is feasting on a media diet of fawning press coverage, disparaging clips about his perceived enemies, and helpings of flattering photos and 'A.I. slop,' as one official put it."

That, Sargent said, is the "hopium." Bill Pulte, the Federal Housing Finance Agency director, along with personal aide Natalie Harp, has been giving the president memes, posters and documents that gush with praise for him and paint a rosy picture of a country that remains in his corner — when the opposite is true.

"It's interesting how they need to limit Trump's media consumption in the present in order to sustain his belief in this kind of cultural dominance he imagines he has, isn't it?" Sargent asked.

Schaller agreed, noting that it is clear Trump is living in a "bubble." "And as much as they have to limit his consumption of the content, I feel like they would love to find ways to limit his delivery of the content," he continued. "I mean, he goes so off the page. I know you've already probably talked on earlier pods about this remarking on Jon Husted's physique, bringing up old stories that are completely irrelevant and, like, sort of Trump 2024 greatest hits."

Trump is "so off message" and "so undisciplined," Schaller argued, that even his advisers are not certain what to "feed him."

"And when he stands up there and says, I've got 99 support among Republicans, when I think the polls show it around — correct me if I'm wrong — like 78 percent. Like, 78 percent is low for your own party when you're the incumbent president," Schaller explained. "For him to think it's 99 percent means that they literally cannot tell him the truth in the White House. And so he goes out and says things like, the economy's great, and sure, you're paying a little bit more for gas, but the oil companies are doing great. Like, he's so off message, it's absurd."

Sargent agreed it is a "bubble," but pointed to "the self-defeating nature of this kind of campaign," which ensures Trump never knows the reality of what is happening.

"Because when they tell him that he's at 99 percent with the Republicans, when they tell him that all the criticism that he's receiving is bullshit, it's just fake news, the polls that are showing his unpopularity are fake polls—he says that constantly and clearly has begun to believe it," Sargent added.

Regardless of what Trump and his White House may be telling themselves, Sargent said, "there's absolutely no way this is helpful to Republican senators who are embattled, or Republican House members who are embattled. Just no way." November's midterms — with every House seat and more than 30 Senate seats on the ballot — will be the first concrete test of the gap between the rosy picture the president is fed and the political reality administration officials describe.