President Donald Trump may have a perverse political incentive to see Republicans suffer a wipeout in the November midterms — an outcome that could transform his presidency — according to a new analysis arguing that his appetite for confrontation could outweigh his party's congressional power. Because control of Congress determines which party sets chamber agendas and chairs the committees that oversee the executive branch, a shift in power on November 3 would directly shape what legislation can move during the remainder of Trump's term.

Writing Monday in The New Republic, editor Michael Tomasky contends that Trump's remarks at a Saturday rally in Perry, Georgia, are an "obvious" sign that part of him wants the GOP to lose. Tomasky described the president's "aging, creaking, mildewed mind," arguing that his comments on rising gas prices and his claims about the war in Iran were especially damaging just days before the November 3 elections. Midterm elections have historically tended to break against the party holding the White House, a pattern that has recurred throughout modern American political history.

At the rally, Trump boasted that the United States was making hundreds of billions of dollars from the war in Iran.

"My people say, 'Please don't mention that, sir, people are paying a little higher …' I can just see the fake headlines: 'President Trump is talking about all the money they're making while people are suffering at the pump.' But I said, 'I don't give a damn, I'm gonna say it: We're making a frickin' fortune,'" the president said.

Tomasky disputed that claim, as does all reporting on the matter. He cited the Wall Street Journal, which reported that Persian Gulf oil exports had surpassed pre-war levels. He also noted that American oil exports to Asia have slumped as tanker shipping costs have risen sharply, referencing an OilPrice.com report that Asian orders for U.S. crude had dropped by about half since September.

Tomasky laid out three reasons Trump might quietly welcome a Republican defeat. First, he argued, Trump cares less about Republican victories when his own name is not on the ballot. A loss, the columnist suggested, would also allow Trump to insist the party cannot succeed without him — a product of what Tomasky called his "Brobdingnagian insecurity."

Second, Tomasky wrote that part of president's desire to see Democrats regain power in Congress stems from his need to thrive on conflict. The investigations, subpoenas, and political fights that would follow would give Trump another opportunity to portray himself as under attack.

The third reason, Tomasky argued, is the most chilling. He warned that a GOP wipeout could hand Trump an excuse to revive allegations of election fraud, and speculated that the administration might even attempt to interfere with elections by challenging the certification of results. To underscore the point, Tomasky cited a Justice Department lawsuit seeking to prevent Alaska from certifying its Senate race if incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan loses to Democrat Mary Peltola. The administration has argued that a second Republican candidate with the same name could confuse voters.

Still, Tomasky portrayed the president's rally comments as evidence that Trump is more interested in provoking supporters and attacking opponents than in helping his party win. Many GOP candidates have already decided it is best to distance themselves from Trump, whom they view as a liability. Conversely, many of those who choose to embrace the unpopular president may end up paying the price on November 3. With the vote days away, the results — and the certification processes that normally follow as a routine administrative step — will indicate how much of the scenario Tomasky describes, if any, takes shape.