NewsMacroExperts Warn Trump Administration Quietly Rewriting Census Rules to Exclude Millions of Immigrants

Experts Warn Trump Administration Quietly Rewriting Census Rules to Exclude Millions of Immigrants

Author: Rawstory·

Key Takeaways

  • The Trump administration submitted a regulatory filing in June proposing new rules for the decennial Census that are expected to reclassify millions of immigrants as non-residents of the United States.
  • Census population counts directly determine each state's number of congressional representatives, Electoral College votes, and share of federal funding for healthcare, housing, and transportation.
  • The Fourteenth Amendment mandates apportionment based on counting all persons in each state, a standard the Supreme Court has interpreted to include all residents regardless of citizenship.
  • During his first term, Trump attempted to add a citizenship question to the 2020 Census and issued a memorandum to exclude unauthorized immigrants from apportionment, both of which faced legal challenges.
  • States with large immigrant populations, including California, Texas, New York, and Florida, stand to lose the most congressional seats and federal funding if immigrants are excluded from Census counts.
Experts Warn Trump Administration Quietly Rewriting Census Rules to Exclude Millions of Immigrants

A new report from The Bulwark on Friday reveals that President Donald Trump and his administration have been quietly working to manipulate Census rules in an effort to exclude millions of immigrants and shift the balance of power in Congress.

The Bulwark's economics editor Catherine Rampell highlighted a "vaguely ominous but little-noticed regulatory filing" submitted in June that could have far-reaching implications for immigrants, businesses, and the political balance of the United States.

"The filing was a notification that the Trump administration had drafted new rules governing the decennial census," Rampell wrote.

While the specific details of the new rules remain undisclosed, Rampell reported that sources close to the process anticipate a significant change. "From conversations I've been having with people close to the process, it is widely expected that the administration will try to recategorize millions of immigrants (both unauthorized and legal) as not actually living here in the United States," she explained.

Rampell framed the effort as an extension of the administration's aggressive immigration policies: "Put another way: If you can't deport every immigrant, you can at least remove evidence they exist."

The Census carries enormous political weight. Population counts determine the number of congressional representatives each state receives, which in turn shapes each state's share of Electoral College votes in presidential elections. Census data also drives federal funding allocations for states across areas including healthcare, housing, and transportation infrastructure. The Constitution's Fourteenth Amendment mandates that apportionment be based on counting "the whole number of persons in each state," a standard the Supreme Court has historically interpreted to include all residents regardless of citizenship status.

"The stakes, in other words, are incredibly high. Which makes this rules submission process so profoundly important," Rampell wrote. "And here's the kicker: So far, virtually no one has noticed."

Rampell noted that Trump has long had a vested interest in shaping the Census to his advantage. "Let's be clear: President Trump has been trying to ratf--- the census for years," she wrote.

During Trump's first term, his administration attempted to add a citizenship question to the 2020 Census, a move the Supreme Court blocked in 2019 after finding the administration's justification inadequate. Trump subsequently issued a memorandum in 2020 directing the exclusion of unauthorized immigrants from apportionment counts, though that effort faced immediate legal challenges. Following Trump's first term, his allies examined how adding a citizenship question to the 2030 Census could politically disadvantage Democratic-leaning states — an effort tied to Project 2025. States with large immigrant populations, including California, Texas, New York, and Florida, stand to lose the most from any exclusionary reclassification, both in congressional seats and federal dollars.

Thomas A. Saenz, president and general counsel of the Latino civil rights organization MALDEF, described how the Republican Party has made repeated attempts to alter the Census over the years.

"Before, they just didn't know how to run the government," Saenz said. "That's still a little true today, but this administration, because of the first experience from the first one, is better — more competent at doing evil, if you will."