Tucker Carlson, the former Fox News host who has run his own independently produced show since departing the network in 2023, and former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Georgia) are among the MAGA-aligned Republicans who have shifted from being passionate allies of President Donald Trump to vocal critics. One of their chief criticisms of Trump is the war in Iran, which they view as a betrayal of the America First agenda. According to National Review reporter Charles Hilu, a burning question is how much impact their "defections" from Trump will have on the 2026 midterms in November.

Trump angrily lashed out at Carlson, Greene and Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Kentucky), a libertarian-leaning lawmaker with a long record of casting lone dissenting votes against bills backed by his own party's leadership, in a Friday, August 21 post on his Truth Social platform.

The president posted, "Tucker Carlson just met with Lightweight 'Former' Congressman, Thomas Massie, and Marjorie 'Traitor' Greene, LOSERS ALL! Tucker's 'Views' have fallen through the floor, and will only get worse. Nobody cares about him any longer in that he has become totally irrelevant, and happens to be, surprisingly, a very Low I.Q. individual…. Marjorie Taylor Brown (Green turns to Brown under stress!), a highly neurotic young woman, went from Ultra Conservative to a Liberal 'Fool,' all in a matter of weeks, because I refused to return her phone calls — Not because I didn't like her, just because I had no time…. Thomas Massie has turned out to be a failed politician, and a real JERK."

Hilu stresses that although Carlson and Greene both have "a considerable following on social media," it remains to be seen how much influence the "defectors" Trump attacked will have on the midterms. The question carries extra weight because of midterm history: in almost every election since World War II, the party holding the White House has lost U.S. House seats at the midpoint of a president's term, a pattern that historically makes base turnout a central concern for the party in power.

"None of those Trump attacked are on the ballot this fall, but with the midterms looming, are Republicans worried that Carlson and company might use their influence to turn their collective audience — partly composed of the working-class young men who helped put Trump back in office — against the GOP?" Hilu explains. "To hear most professional Republicans tell it, the answer is a resounding 'no'…. By focusing on the extreme cultural positions embraced by the Democrats, Republican leaders in Washington and across the swing states believe they can counter young voters' discontent with the Iran war."

Sam Markstein, political director of the Republican Jewish Coalition, told the National Review, "President Trump has been clear: they are not part of the MAGA movement anymore."

Fred Kappus, who chairs the Eau Claire County, Wisconsin GOP, told the National Review, "I suppose there may be some younger/working class men who may consider staying home or voting Democrat (over Israel and the Iran war). That being said, anyone who is really paying attention recognizes how radical the Democrat candidates' positions are and would be frightened by them."

Curt Mills, executive director of the American Conservative, holds a different view, believing that the Iran war could hurt Republicans with MAGA voters in the midterms. The American Conservative was co-founded by Patrick Buchanan, whose paleoconservative America First views and scathing criticism of neocons were a major influence on Trump in the past.

Mills told the National Review, "The Republicans are messing it up, and everybody knows it's the Iran war ... I actually think if they do get eviscerated, that could be a good thing because it will imply to the Republicans they need to take some cold medicine and some black coffee and reform themselves. Any Senate candidate or House candidate who's running full-throatedly on the Iran war, I think, should obviously be defeated."