States with some of the nation’s most competitive congressional races are caught in the crosshairs of President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, The Washington Post reported. The dispute is complicating campaigns for Republican House and Senate candidates in states including Maine, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to Republican analysts.

Although the average American may not immediately feel the effect of the tariffs, industries in those states are likely to face higher costs. “Donald Trump was elected in part to bring down inflation and juice the economy,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican political consultant in Washington. “Anything that works opposite of those goals is not helpful for any Republican running this year.”

Brent Buchanan, founder of the Republican polling firm Cygnal, said the trade war was giving Republican candidates another reason to distance themselves from Trump. The president’s approval ratings have fallen as gas prices have risen amid his war with Iran, Buchanan said.

“With this being so salient to the states closer to the Canadian border, it’s a way for them to say, ‘I’m standing up for you — above the president, above Congress, above Canada, above anybody,’” Buchanan said.

Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wisconsin) has claimed that Canada has been “jamming our dairy industry for a long period of time.” In Maine, Sen. Susan Collins is fighting to prevent a Democratic takeover of her seat as the state becomes increasingly critical of Trump. Collins has called Trump’s trade war with neighboring Canada a “mistake.”

Several Michigan auto suppliers and Maine lumber companies operate on both sides of the border, according to the Post. Iowa also has close agricultural trade ties with Canada, including exports of farm machinery.

Trump intensified the trade dispute between the two allied nations in July, when he announced plans to impose 50 percent tariffs on some Canadian goods. The new tariffs took effect late last month after negotiations between the countries collapsed, imposing new fees on alcohol, dairy products and other Canadian imports for U.S. consumers.

Canada retaliated on Sept. 8 with tariffs on U.S. goods, including aluminum, dairy products, agricultural equipment, plastics, paper products and appliances. Trump later announced that new bans on imports of some Canadian alcohol, motorcycles, molasses and other products would begin Sept. 29.

Michigan conducted more than $66 billion in trade with Canada last year, according to the Post. The state has a “closely intertwined manufacturing sector” that regularly exchanges products with neighboring Ontario. Canadian tariffs on American steel and aluminum, nuts and bolts, steering-wheel rods and other small parts are therefore expected to increase costs for manufacturers that are “already worn out after years of supply chain disruptions from the covid-19 pandemic and changing federal policy on electric vehicles.”

“I think we reached fatigue about a month ago,” Glenn Stevens, executive director of MichAuto, an advocacy group for Michigan’s auto industry, told the Post. “It’s a difficult business.”

The trade dispute is creating a difficult position for Michigan Senate candidate Mike Rogers, who is running for an open seat against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. Rogers has sought to support Trump while also criticizing policies that could alienate voters. In an August post on X, Rogers wrote that Trump “is right to put America First” but that “trade isn’t one-size-fits-all.” He also pledged to work with Trump “to broker a fair deal with Canada” supporting Michigan farms, automakers and manufacturing. Rogers’ post on X

For Republican candidates, the trade war “injects an issue they probably thought they never had to deal with,” said John Truscott, founder of Michigan public-relations firm Truscott Rossman and a former spokesperson for Michigan Gov. John Engler. “As a candidate, when you want to be on offense on things, this adds a vulnerability.”