Pennsylvania delivered Democrats a pair of painful setbacks in 2024: Donald Trump narrowly defeated Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris in the state, and three-term Democratic Sen. Bob Casey Jr. lost his seat. Heading into the 2026 midterms, however, Democratic strategists are expressing optimism about their prospects in the Commonwealth.

The reason, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer, is that Trump's trade war with Canada is hitting Pennsylvania hard, producing fallout that is both economic and political.

"President Donald Trump says he's holding Canada accountable for 'ripping off' the United States through unfair trade practices," journalists Andrew Seidman and Lizzie Mulvey report in the Inquirer. "But by imposing new tariffs on Canadian goods and prompting retaliation from one of America's largest trading partners, U.S. businesses and consumers could face higher costs, analysts said — including in key electoral battlegrounds like Pennsylvania."

Canada is Pennsylvania's largest export market. Seidman and Mulvey report that the state "sold $13.4 billion in goods last year to Canada — its largest export market."

"About $2 billion worth of those goods, or 16 percent, will be subject to higher tariffs — some as high as 50 percent — starting September 8 after Canada this week announced new levies, according to an Inquirer analysis of trade data," the reporters note. "Some of the state's top exports facing new tariffs include raw aluminum, lumber, and passenger vehicles."

The exposure of those specific industries matters politically in a state where manufacturing, timber, and metals production are woven into regional economies — the kind of communities both parties have fought over in recent cycles.

Lauren Swartz, CEO of the nonprofit World Affairs Council of Philadelphia, is warning about the consequences the trade war will have for her state.

"When we think about what that means for Pennsylvania, it's going to be loud. My sense is the rhetoric that we're hearing, and the fact that it's already being labeled a trade war, is that both countries are reserving the right to escalate the level, the percentage of tariffs, as well as the scope of goods that will fall under the new trade war. So, it will expand," Swartz told the Inquirer.

The tariffs' impact on Pennsylvania has become a central focus of centrist Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro, who is seeking reelection and has led GOP nominee Stacy Garrity in the polls. The governor's race is one of roughly three dozen gubernatorial contests on the 2026 ballot nationwide, and Pennsylvania — a state Trump carried in 2016 and 2024 but lost to Joe Biden in 2020 — is again expected to be among the most competitive battlegrounds.

"Donald Trump's reckless tariffs are a tax on Pennsylvanians — and Gov. Shapiro has been fighting back against them from Day 1. This president has raised costs for families, screwed over our farmers, and shut down markets for businesses — all with Stacy Garrity's 100 percent support," Manuel Bonder, a spokesman for Shapiro's campaign, told the Inquirer.

Shapiro's attacks on Garrity and Trump appear to be resonating. A recent New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll found Garrity trailing Shapiro by 16 percent, and a Franklin & Marshall poll released in late August showed Shapiro with a 25 percent lead over her.

Shapiro has been mentioned as a possible presidential candidate for 2028, and Democratic strategists argue that he needs to win decisively on Election Night to demonstrate he can go the distance in a tough swing state that Trump won in 2016 and 2024 but lost to Joe Biden in 2020.

Source: Philadelphia Inquirer