An assumption is circulating online that President Donald Trump does not worry much about his support in the heartland because he will continue doing what he does regardless of public opinion and, as before, will keep getting away with it.

There is some basis for that view. Over the past 150 years, only three men have carried out major terrorist attacks against the U.S. government: Osama bin Laden, Timothy McVeigh and Donald Trump. Two are dead; one is president.

That does not mean Trump is untouchable. History shows that absolute dictators can remain in power for long periods without broad public support, with Stalin and North Korea among the most prominent examples. But that is a much harder feat to sustain in the United States, where elections, congressional scrutiny and factional splits can still matter, and other seemingly invincible strongmen have fallen as well. Things change.

In March, this column began forecasting the outlines of Trump’s political decline. Many readers dismissed that idea, largely because since 2017 there has been a persistent expectation that a scandal would emerge that even Trump could not contain and that he would fall within about three weeks, as would any other president facing a similar crisis.

That was not the argument being made.

Instead, the prediction rested on three developments converging at a particularly bad time, just before the midterms. First, Trump already faced a difficult economy, and scandals are much harder to weather when Americans are angry about money. Second, he launched what the column described as a largely expected Republican war in the Middle East without convincing anyone it was necessary and without a clear plan to win. Third, some people began to notice: “Hey? It kinda looks like this guy may be in it for the money.”

No one likes feeling manipulated.

Just as important, Trump’s problems were never expected to appear overnight or even within a month. The argument was always that this would be a drip, drip, drip process. The issue now is not the next poll showing the same trend, although such polls exist. It is the fallout from falling numbers and the possibility that one of the things that can bring down even the strongest strongmen is starting to happen: staffers may be turning on him.

For a time, that kind of division seemed unlikely because of Chief of Staff Susie Wiles’s skillful handling of White House politics. She understands that a house divided against itself cannot stand. But the cracks appear to be widening, and the leaks have begun.

The most notable example came this past week. As reported on this website, a senior official described as “close to Trump,” and someone in a position “of influence,” said that even those running the White House are worried he is sinking to numbers lower than Natalie Harp’s age. The source said:

“He keeps saying he doesn’t want to become Herbert Hoover but then can’t stop acting like he wants to be Herbert Hoover. He really could sink to the high 20s, I think. I would not have thought that last year.”

The official then laughed and said anonymity was necessary or a trip to Siberia would be in play.

As the original author, Zeteo’s Asawin Suebsaeng, put it: “I was genuinely surprised they’d cop to it! Despite his fascistic bullyboy tactics, this president is in a uniquely vulnerable position, and [they] need to be ready for that dam to finally break.”

The wording matters. That kind of language does not come from a passing complaint by a deputy press secretary. It more likely reflects concern from a communications director, a cabinet member or even a frustrated chief of staff. In effect, Trump has crossed the threshold of what someone very close to him is willing to say out loud.

The identity of the source matters less than the message. Trump’s inner circle appears to recognize that something needs to change quickly or he could slide into the high 20s, a range repeatedly described as serious trouble. Falling below 30% approval is a meaningful threshold, especially for a president trying to hold together a party, manage Congress and keep loyalists from scattering. Trump’s approval rating stood at 29% in the weeks after Jan. 6, when nearly everyone hated him, feared COVID-19 and worried about the country. That is the kind of political atmosphere being invoked here.

What does that mean in practical terms? Trump will still try to interfere in the election and do what he wants to do.

But a signal this strong makes it easier for Democrats to win by margins too large for him to manipulate. He may still try to ignore Congress and instruct administration officials to disregard subpoenas. He does not intend to allow “just a bunch of Democrat congress people” to investigate him.

That is harder to sustain if he is polling in the high 20s. It becomes an easy way to look worse and fall further. That is especially true if Republicans begin to think, “Even if this guy did still run again, or try to cancel the 2028 election somehow, he’s not going to get away with it, making him the loudest, lamest quacking duck of all time.” For once, Trump might have to answer to some Republicans in Congress.

There is little sign that things will improve soon. Tax cuts for the rich do not work for the economy and never have, even if he gets out of the war, which the column says he will not. And the third point — that Trump looks like he is in it for the money — appears to be gaining traction. People in Congress and on the right are acting as if they are only now beginning to notice. They may soon realize that the next administration could pose a much greater investigative threat than this one.

The GOP has tried to create permanent governance in Washington. At the same time, the column argues, it has driven the economy into the ground. The comparison is made to George W. Bush’s final two years. The economy, the piece says, is being driven down before the stock market fully craters, with the market propped up largely by big tech and data centers. It is also being weakened before especially poor job numbers begin to arrive as AI reaches more workplaces. Republicans may continue blaming Joe Biden, but that does not change the underlying conditions.

That kind of economic climate tends to push Americans toward hope and change. This time, the column argues, voters will not want any “President Obama Mr. Nice Guy” approach. Whether the Democratic nominee is Gavin Newsom, Pete Buttigieg, Andy Beshear, AOC, or someone not yet widely known, the task will be to clean everything up. Republicans know that, and many of them have profited while the profits were there to be made.

Another realization is likely to come as Trump’s numbers slide toward the high 20s and the White House begins to crack: he cannot simply pardon “Everyone that ever worked for me, voted for me, or said nice things about me.”

The country, the column says, is not going to allow Trump a free pass for crimes that are eventually uncovered. The more sweeping any mass pardon appears, the more fraudulent it will look, and the more likely prosecutors and courts may feel able to intervene, whether through state charges or some more complex route. Republicans have probably been thinking about this for a while, but they have never been bitten by betting on Trump. Not yet.

That dynamic has never been tested with Trump polling near Hoover-level territory and below the numbers seen after Jan. 6. The numbers matter, and Republicans know it. The White House apparently knows it too.

There is now tangible evidence: increasingly meaningful leaks, more departures and fewer people listening. Soon, far fewer Republicans will fear him.

This was never going to happen in three weeks, no matter how much it may be deserved. It was always going to happen drip by drip. The point is that Trump appears to understand that the drip matters. Playing the role of Herbert Hoover fits the image the column draws: uncaring, self-assured, Republican and driving ahead full steam despite the iceberg.

He cannot help himself. Never could.

Soon, no one else can or will, either.

Jason Miciak is a Raw Story columnist, former editor at Occupy Democrats, author, political consultant and attorney. He is also available for public speaking. Follow him on Bluesky. He can be reached at jasonmiciak@gmail.com.