President Donald Trump is facing a series of weak approval numbers, according to a new report in The i Paper, and the article says those figures are placing his party under pressure ahead of the midterm elections. The stakes are heightened by the historical pattern of midterm cycles, in which the party holding the White House typically loses congressional seats — a dynamic that narrow Republican majorities leave little room to absorb.

"As America enters the closing stages of this year’s midterm election campaign, Republicans are not just on the back foot ahead of their date with destiny on Tuesday, [November 3], they are flat on their backs in the ring – and the referee has already started the count," veteran Washington, D.C. correspondent Simon Marks wrote on Saturday. "The roots of what appears to be impending disaster for America’s Grand Old Party lie in a series of numbers that provide incontrovertible evidence of the damage caused to the Republican brand by President Donald Trump . His name does not appear on any ballot paper this November, but the White House conceded months ago that the force of his personality makes this year’s electoral cycle a de facto referendum on his return to power."

Marks argued that the GOP’s narrow majorities in both chambers of Congress are at risk in the midterm election as voters increasingly express disapproval of Trump’s presidency. Control of the House and Senate would determine whether Republicans can continue advancing Trump’s legislative agenda in the second half of his term. He said that "on every single issue voters are questioned about," they are showing growing disapproval of Trump and of Republican lawmakers aligned with his agenda.

"A look at the details underlying Trump’s approval ratings shows that there is not one issue on which he can claim majority support of Americans," Marks explained. "CNN’s most recent survey, conducted in late July, showed the President’s overall approval rating stood at just 34 per cent. But on key individual issues he is in an even worse position. Just 21 per cent of voters said they approved of his handling of fuel prices, which have soared as a direct consequence of his fruitless war on Iran. That same military campaign is opposed by 72 per cent of voters while his handling of inflation scored the backing of just one voter in every four. Even the two strongest suits in Trump’s arsenal among his own supporters – mass deportations and his continuing questioning of US election integrity – are backed by only 39 per cent and 41 per cent of the public respectively."

Beyond those approval numbers, Marks said the Republican Party’s narrow margins in Congress are also a factor. Since 2024, the party has held only slim majorities in both chambers: 53-47 in the Senate and 219-214 in the House, with the House margin reduced by an unusually high number of departures.

"Trump’s policies have driven a fresh wedge between Republicans and the growing electoral power of black, Hispanic and other minority voters in America," Marks added. "In the 2024 presidential election, Trump secured the support of 46 per cent of Hispanic voters, a number so unprecedented that some political analysts argued they had effectively secured him his second term in office... But new polling shows Democrats now enjoy a 24-point advantage over Republicans in securing Hispanic votes. According to the research by the non-partisan Pew Research Center almost 50 per cent of Hispanic voters interviewed said they would back Democratic Party candidates in November, with just 26 per cent planning to back Republicans... Black voters are also deserting the Republicans in droves. In 2024, Trump secured an historic 15 per cent of the black vote (almost double the 8 per cent support he secured in 2020). Today, that advantage has also been completely erased, with 8 per cent now saying they will back Republicans in the midterms, according to Pew researchers."

Marks said fundraising is one of the few areas in which Republicans have an edge over Democrats, but argued that money may not be enough to overcome widespread voter "antipathy" toward Trump and the party. Recent reports have also said Trump is reluctant to spend much of his fundraising war chest on anything other than advertising that highlights his record, which many Republican candidates would prefer not to emphasize. How the party balances that financial advantage against the polling headwinds will shape the final weeks of the campaign and the composition of the next Congress.