Trump Could Pressure Justice Alito to Retire Before Democrats Take Senate Control, Columnist Warns
Key Takeaways
- •Democrats captured control of both the House and the Senate in the midterm elections, pushing President Trump into a lame-duck period with the new Congress seated in January.
- •The Bulwark's Jonathan V. Last argues Trump will likely pressure the 76-year-old Justice Samuel Alito to retire so Republicans can confirm a younger conservative before Democrats can block the nomination.
- •Alito, appointed in 2006, said in August he intends to serve through the current term ending in June, and his lifetime appointment means only he can decide to step down.
- •Republicans previously confirmed Justice Amy Coney Barrett in roughly one month in 2020, and justices such as Anthony Kennedy and Stephen Breyer timed their retirements to match Senate political control.
- •The columnist also highlighted looming decisions on the war in Iran, which ranked among the top issues behind the GOP's electoral wipeout.

President Donald Trump could make a last-minute attempt to reshape the Supreme Court before Democrats formally take control of the Senate following their Election Night victory, and Justice Samuel Alito may be the central target of a pressure campaign, according to a prominent columnist.
Tuesday's midterm elections handed Democrats control of both the House and the Senate in a historic wipeout that flipped several red states. The result pushes Trump into a lame-duck era for the final two years of his term, with the new Congress set to be sworn in this January. That leaves the president with a Republican Senate majority for roughly nine more weeks, The Bulwark's Jonathan V. Last argued in a Wednesday column.
Last believes Trump will use that window to fill one more seat on the high court.
"I will be shocked if he doesn't lean on Sam Alito to retire," Last wrote. He argued that Republicans would then attempt to rush a replacement through the Senate before Democrats are positioned to block the nomination.
Alito, 76, said in August that he intends to remain on the court through the end of the current term, which runs until June of next year. Appointed by President George W. Bush in 2006, Alito has been one of the court's most reliably conservative votes. Supreme Court justices hold lifetime appointments, however, and a president has no formal power to remove one — any vacancy would depend on Alito's own choice to step down. Replacing him with a younger conservative would likely maintain that majority for decades, but the clock is ticking before Democrats can halt such a plan.
Republicans have demonstrated they can move quickly when a seat is at stake. In 2020, the GOP-controlled Senate confirmed Justice Amy Coney Barrett — Trump's third Supreme Court pick of his first term, after Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh — roughly one month after Trump nominated her, just days before the presidential election, and Democrats were powerless to stop the confirmation. Justices have also historically timed their exits to political control: Justice Anthony Kennedy retired in 2018, allowing Trump to seat a successor before that year's midterms, and Justice Stephen Breyer retired in 2022 while Democrats still held the Senate, ensuring a like-minded replacement.
In the same column, Last also sounded the alarm about the war in Iran, which could occupy the attention of Trump and his allies while the Alito clock ticks. "But before that happens, he's going to make some choices about his war in Iran. Will he escalate? Will he pull the plug?" Last wrote.
The Iran war ranked among the top issues behind the GOP's wipeout. With nothing left to lose politically, Trump's path forward remains unclear, though reporting indicates he plans to continue military strikes.
Last argued that the current moment bears no resemblance to the 2006 or 2014 midterms, when a conventional president took the electoral hit, learned from it and adjusted course to keep the political system steady. Trump, by contrast, has already teased a fight with Democrats, flexing his veto powers as a negotiating tool.
Whether Trump actually moves to push Alito out remains to be seen, but Last views it as more likely than not. When Alito said he was considering stepping down, a delighted Trump wrote "A great man!!!" on Truth Social.