Peak season is here, but FreightWaves SONAR data reveals a surprising trend: truckload tender rejection rates are not surging into Labor Day as they did in previous years. While spot rates remain elevated year over year, the expected pre-holiday peak has yet to materialize. The question is whether this is the new normal for a supply-driven market, or a sign of deeper structural shifts, with intermodal rail siphoning long-haul freight away from trucks.

The tender rejection rate — the share of contracted freight loads that carriers turn down when offered by shippers — is one of the most widely watched gauges of truckload market tightness. Rising rejections typically signal carriers have better options and can be picky, pushing shippers toward the spot market; a flat reading suggests capacity and demand remain roughly in balance.

Truckload tender rejections have stalled near 13.5% heading into Labor Day weekend — a notable departure from prior years, when rejection rates began climbing earlier in August. The pattern signals that the current freight cycle remains orderly rather than supply-constrained.

FreightWaves SONAR data reviewed on air shows the 2026 rejection rate peaked above 17.5% earlier in the cycle but has since consolidated. Julie Van de Kamp said she had expected rejection rates to reach the 18% range ahead of Labor Day but no longer believes that is likely. Craig Fuller put his informal forecast even lower.

“I’m not a forecaster, but if I had to bet, I would think we’re in the 15s,” Fuller said.

Comparing the current year against SONAR’s historical overlays — magenta for 2023, green for 2024, yellow for 2025 — all prior cycles showed a slow, steady August uptick culminating in a small Labor Day peak. The 2026 line, shown in blue, has not yet replicated that pattern, though Van de Kamp said she still expects some firming through the holiday weekend and the typically busy week that follows.

A key structural factor suppressing the usual seasonal surge is rail. Both hosts pointed to railroads absorbing a significant share of long-haul freight that would otherwise move by truckload, keeping trucking volumes steady but not tight. Intermodal service — containers moved by a combination of rail and drayage — competes most directly with truckload on longer lanes, and railroads’ share of that traffic has grown amid elevated truckload rates, blunting the seasonal tightening trucking markets would otherwise feel. Fuller noted the broader dynamic: “We haven’t seen demand pick up. It’s been pretty steady. And as we’ve talked about over and over again, this cycle is supply-driven.”

Van spot rates tell a similar story. At $3.29 per mile, rates are down roughly 2.5% month over month from a cycle peak above $3.80 per mile. Even so, Fuller emphasized that context matters: spot rates remain up 44% year over year. Contract rates, meanwhile, are up 17% year over year, and the gap between spot and contract continues to narrow as shippers adjust routing guides upward to keep them intact. For shippers and carriers alike, the stakes of how this plays out are real: a firming rejection rate into peak season would typically push more freight onto the spot market and pressure contract negotiations, while a continued flat reading would point to a more muted peak than the year-over-year rate gains suggest.

Fuller said he will be watching volume data market by market as Labor Day passes and the freight calendar moves closer to peak season, with particular attention on whether coastal markets begin to accelerate. Van de Kamp added that weekly AAR rail freight data — published every Wednesday — remains robust, reinforcing why trucking has not seen the kind of demand-driven tightening that characterized earlier cycles.

In short: tender rejections are holding near 13.5% with no pre-Labor Day surge, below the cycle peak of 17.5% and well short of the 18% some had anticipated. Van spot rates sit at $3.29 per mile, down roughly 2.5% month over month but still up 44% year over year, while contract rates are up 17% year over year. And rail is absorbing significant long-haul freight volume — a key reason truckload markets feel orderly rather than tight heading into peak season.

This summary is based on a transcription of the interview. The full interview is available in the video at FreightWaves.