Chart of the Week: Accepted Truckload Volume Index and SONAR Truckload Rejection Index – USA (SONAR: ASTVI.USA, STRI.USA)

The Accepted SONAR Truckload Volume Index (ASTVI), which measures the volume of truckload tenders carriers accept for loads moved under existing rate agreements, averaged around 9,800 last week. The SONAR Truckload Rejection Index (STRI), which measures the percentage of tendered loads rejected, hovered around 13.5%. Although both metrics are down from their 12-month highs, taken together they suggest that the current truckload market cycle is more supply-driven than any in recent history — and still has room to run.

Accepted tender volumes serve as a fairly good proxy for total truckload demand when rejection rates are relatively low (below 5%). When rejection rates are higher, ASTVI becomes more likely to undercount total demand, as more loads are covered on the spot market or outside existing contracts. That dynamic matters for how the two indexes are read: at a 13.5% rejection rate, a meaningful share of freight is moving outside contract channels, so the accepted-volume figure understates the total freight being tendered.

Accepted volumes and tender rejection signals

When the trucking market tightens and rejection rates increase, accepted volumes become a useful anchor for how much freight carriers can cover with existing capacity. When ASTVI rises while STRI declines, that is a sign of capacity growth or an improvement in market efficiency. A strong signal of capacity erosion is accepted tenders staying flat while rejections rise — as was the case in October of both 2024 and 2025. When the two fall together, the movement is more reflective of pure demand deterioration, as occurred this past July.

The recent drop in demand pulled rejection rates lower, but that was not a sign that capacity had grown. Shippers have been using intermodal more frequently because of its cost savings relative to trucking. Demand-side conditions tend to be more volatile and move the market faster. Supply-side shifts are far slower — which is why it took more than three years for the market to correct the dramatic oversupply that followed COVID. That asymmetry is the core reason this cycle qualifies as supply-driven: the market's direction is being set less by swings in freight volumes, which have been comparatively muted, and more by the slow attrition of trucks and drivers from the industry.

Recent ASTVI levels are actually close to where they stood in 2019 — lower than most of the past four years, with the exception of last October and November. Rejection rates were below 5% for most of 2019 and below 6% last fall, indicating roughly the same demand but with more than twice the tightness.

Supply's slow crawl

While demand deterioration is still possible, the data suggests there is more room for demand to grow than to contract. Recent Q2 2026 earnings reports show no evidence of fleet growth — most carriers reported annual declines in active units.

Class 8 orders are up this year, but that comes off an abysmal 2025 comparison, and both ACT and FTR cite fleet replacement, rather than growth, as the primary driver. Replacement demand keeps trucks flowing to fleets without adding net capacity to the market, so even rising order volumes do not signal an impending supply expansion.

It may still be early to see strong movement, but carriers are coming off one of the longest and most challenging freight markets since the Great Recession in 2009. Cash reserves are low and debt is high. This cycle still has a ways to go if the goods economy holds up. Risks skew toward further tightening rather than rapid softening — demand growth, rail disruptions, intermodal rate increases, and continued government pressure on capacity all point in the same direction. For shippers and carriers watching these signals, the indicators to track in coming months are whether STRI continues to climb from its current level, whether ASTVI holds near its 2019 comparison point, and whether Class 8 orders begin shifting from replacement toward fleet expansion.

About the Chart of the Week

The FreightWaves Chart of the Week is a chart selection from SONAR that provides an interesting data point to describe the state of the freight markets. A chart is chosen from thousands of potential charts on SONAR to help participants visualize the freight market in real time. Each week a Market Expert posts a chart, along with commentary, live on the front page, after which the Chart of the Week is archived on FreightWaves.com for future reference.

SONAR aggregates data from hundreds of sources, presenting it in charts and maps and providing commentary on what freight market experts want to know about the industry in real time. The FreightWaves data science and product teams are releasing new datasets each week and enhancing the client experience.