Accepted truckload volumes have declined 3.3% year over year, but FreightWaves SONAR data analysis points to a significant modal shift to intermodal rail rather than a weakening economy as the primary cause. Domestic intermodal container volumes are up 10% year over year, while long-haul truckload volumes have remained essentially flat, according to data cited during a FreightWaves analysis segment. The distinction matters because freight data is widely tracked as a real-time economic barometer — a decline in truckload volumes can be misread as a demand contraction when, in this case, freight is redistributing across transportation modes rather than disappearing from the system.

The divergence explains a broader pattern observed across the freight market: brokers are seeing softer spot postings over the last several weeks, even as large asset-based carriers — including both less-than-truckload (LTL) and truckload providers — report firming volumes in channel checks. The FreightWaves analyst noted that the economy is performing well and that major companies across the large asset-based side of the business are experiencing volume growth.

Drivers of the Modal Shift

The shift toward rail is being driven by two reinforcing factors: a 34% cost discount that rail holds over truck, as tracked by FreightWaves' Intermodal Savings Index, and the absence of time pressure on freight moving into retailer distribution centers.

"If you need the products right now, you move it by truck. If you don't need it for a few months, you can move it by rail. And you're taking advantage of the 34% discount of rail versus truck," said the FreightWaves analyst.

Retailers have been rebuilding inventories for the second half of the year following a period of tight stock levels. Ports have logged strong import volumes in recent months, and shippers have months before products are needed on store shelves — making slower rail transit a viable and substantially cheaper option. The analyst described the dynamic as retailers effectively using rail containers as "warehouse on rails" or "warehouse on wheels," moving inventory inland without urgency.

Fuel economics are amplifying the cost spread. When fuel prices rise, intermodal fuel surcharges increase at a slower rate than trucking fuel surcharges, widening the gap between the two modes. However, supply chain reconfigurations to shift freight from truck to intermodal require time — companies cannot immediately reroute traffic patterns they have not previously established on rail. This lag explains why the fuel price increases first observed in March did not translate into firming intermodal traffic until June, a delay of roughly two months.

Corroborating Data Points

The American Association of Railroads (AAR) weekly tonnage index, which FreightWaves covers every Wednesday, is up 4.4%, corroborating the modal shift narrative. The AAR data has consistently reflected railroad strength throughout the year.

JB Hunt's earnings were cited as a concrete benchmark for domestic intermodal strength. The analyst pointed to the carrier's domestic intermodal segment — described as "the lifeblood of JB Hunt's intermodal business" — as "very robust." Hub Group was also identified as a comparable beneficiary of the intermodal trend. FreightWaves has been speaking with major intermodal providers on its FreightWaves Today program, and those providers consistently report robust conditions.

Consumer and Economic Context

At the end of 2025, companies expressed significant concern about the state of the consumer, particularly regarding inflationary pressures and tariff-related uncertainties. Those fears did not materialize. Consumer spending has held up and remains robust, according to the analysis, with earnings across all major categories performing well — with the exception of certain food segments within consumer packaged goods (CPG) and restaurant retail. That softness was attributed more to GLP-1 drug adoption changing consumer eating habits than to broader macroeconomic weakness.

Broader economic indicators support the view that demand itself is not deteriorating. The ISM index is described as strong. The Logistics Managers' Index (LMI) shows inventory build beginning as companies prepare for the second half. CEO channel checks conducted through FreightWaves Today — involving roughly 10 logistics sector executives per week — are consistently positive. Industrials are also ramping.

Outlook for Q4

The modal gains for rail are not expected to last indefinitely. As the calendar moves into October and November, time pressure around fourth-quarter restocking and the holiday rush typically pushes shippers back toward truck. Truckload demand is expected to firm during that window.

However, the analyst raised a note of caution: because freight has already been moving slowly by rail deeper into the country's interior distribution centers, the usual late-year surge in trucking demand may be more muted than historical patterns would suggest. Products have been gradually repositioned closer to inland distribution centers, reducing the urgency and volume of last-minute truckload movements that typically characterize the holiday freight rush. This dynamic aligns with the LMI's inventory build signal — companies front-loading inventory via rail now may reduce the volume of goods requiring expedited truck transport later in the quarter.

The key takeaway, according to the FreightWaves analysis, is that the decline in accepted truckload volumes is entirely attributable to modal conversion from truck to intermodal rail — not to weakening freight demand or economic contraction. The analyst pointed to JB Hunt and Hub Group as primary beneficiaries of the trend, alongside the railroads more broadly.

Source: FreightWaves