Trucking capacity is contracting at a time when shippers are seeking room to expand volumes. ACT Research's June For-Hire Trucking Index showed freight rates remaining near record levels while capacity conditions continued to tighten, with Class 8 tractor sales still running below replacement levels and new federal driver rules reducing available labor.

For shippers looking to move more freight, the shortage of truck capacity is unlikely to ease quickly, according to the report. The pinch matters across the broader supply chain: trucks move roughly 72% of the nation's domestic freight tonnage, so sustained tightness tends to elevate delivered costs for goods ranging from retail merchandise to building materials.

ACT Research's survey converts monthly carrier responses into a diffusion index. A reading above 50 indicates growth, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. A flat, unchanged month is recorded at exactly 50.

The Freight Rate Index declined 9.5 points month over month to a seasonally adjusted 70.2 in June, down from May's record reading of 79.7. Despite the decline, the June result remains among the strongest readings in the survey's nearly 17-year history. ACT Research said market balance has shifted decisively in favor of fleets this year and added that tight market dynamics are likely to continue pushing freight rates higher.

Capacity Index Reaches 43-Month High

The Capacity Index rose 1.5 points to 55.0 in June, marking a 43-month high, even as Class 8 sales remain below replacement levels across the industry. ACT Research said the increase reflects expansion signals from larger, well-run fleets rather than a broad rebound in overall capacity. The Class 8 segment—heavy-duty tractors that handle long-haul routes—is widely tracked as a leading indicator of how quickly carriers can add productive trucks to the network.

The firm expects expansion to accelerate further in the third and fourth quarters as spot rate gains move through to contract rates and as carriers replace aging equipment while considering EPA'27 emissions rules, which tighten nitrogen oxide and particulate matter standards for heavy-duty trucks.

Driver Availability Remains Constrained

The Driver Availability Index increased slightly to 34.1 in June from 32.6 in May, but it remains deeply depressed. A series of new Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) regulations, including restrictions on nondomiciled commercial driver's licenses, tighter enforcement of electronic logging device and registration fraud rules, and driver school closures, pushed the index to a five-year low of 30.4 in April after the nondomiciled rules took effect in mid-March.

The modest increases in May and June indicate some near-term stabilization. However, ACT Research expects continued driver scarcity to support higher freight rates.

Fleet Purchase Plans Remain Below Historical Average

Fleet purchase intentions were unchanged from the previous month, with 47% of carriers planning equipment purchases over the next three months. That figure is below June's historical average of 53%.

Two factors are limiting fleet purchases, according to the report. Carrier profit margins entering 2026 were at levels not seen since the Great Recession, reducing capital spending. In addition, the roughly six-month lag between spot and contract rate increases left large carriers with limited margin improvement in the first quarter. Spot rates cover immediate, one-time shipments, while contract rates are negotiated in advance and tend to follow spot trends with a delay.

ACT Research expects that gap to narrow as rate increases continue to pass through the market. The firm said capacity expansion should strengthen further in the third and fourth quarters as spot rate gains flow into contract rates and carriers address pent-up demand to replace aging equipment while keeping EPA'27 requirements in view.