Foreign policy expert Trita Parsi issued a dire warning on Sunday, arguing that "all signs" were pointing to a "major escalation" in the U.S. war against Iran — one that "may very well" occur next month.

"All signs point to a major escalation between the US, Iran and Israel. And it may very well be initiated by Tehran itself a week or two before the midterm elections," Parsi wrote Sunday in a statement published on social media. "Iran's pattern of behavior suggests preparation for that war, including how they are clearing the path for even more effective strikes against Israel."

Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and a longtime scholar of U.S.-Iran relations, has been a consistent critic of the confrontation between Washington and Tehran, and his assessment reflects broader concern among analysts that the conflict, now in its third round, is drifting away from the limited exchanges that defined its earlier phases.

The U.S. war against Iran has seen few direct exchanges of fire since July. That trend was broken last week, when Iran responded to a wave of U.S. strikes by attacking U.S. allies Jordan and Bahrain. On Saturday, the United States struck three Iranian oil tankers — an attack that Iran's parliament speaker vowed Sunday to answer with a "more intense and more painful response," CBS News reported. The targeting of tankers also underscores how the fighting has increasingly touched maritime commerce in the region, a sensitive point for global oil shipping routes.

Yet Iran's response to U.S. attacks, as Parsi has previously noted, has been comparatively reserved, suggesting Tehran may be waiting for a more "optimal moment to strike back." That moment, Parsi previously theorized, could be "two or three weeks before the congressional elections, maximizing the political damage to Trump." Any escalation timed to the midterms would land in a political environment in which the war itself has become a campaign issue, with the administration's handling of the conflict drawing scrutiny from both parties.

Should a "major escalation" in the war occur, Parsi also warned, it is likely that Israel would play a larger direct role in the conflict.

"While the US kept Israel out of the second round of war because Washington feared Israel would escalate beyond what the US believed was manageable, Trump may, in this third round, see himself far more aligned with Israel's desire for a far larger war," Parsi wrote.

In a post on X on September 6, 2026, Parsi expanded on his assessment:

I just completed our eighth Q&A with subscribers, and I fear I left folks quite worried and depressed. But I was being honest: All signs point to a major escalation between the US, Iran and Israel. And it may very well be initiated by Tehran itself a week or two before the… — Trita Parsi (@tparsi) September 6, 2026 (https://x.com/tparsi/status/2096747115556880680?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw)

Source: Rawstory