NewsStocksCircle, Coinbase and Robinhood Stand to Benefit as US Bond Yields Jump

Circle, Coinbase and Robinhood Stand to Benefit as US Bond Yields Jump

Author: The Market Periodical·

Key Takeaways

  • •Rising US Treasury yields are being driven by public debt above $40.2 trillion, increased Treasury supply, elevated energy prices, and inflation concerns that raise the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate hikes this year.
  • •Circle's revenue is closely tied to short-term rates, with $75.4 billion in USDC reserves invested in roughly three-month government bonds yielding 4.14%, implying gross annual revenue above $3.1 billion before distribution costs, particularly to Coinbase.
  • •Coinbase's stablecoin business generated $292 million in second-quarter revenue as average USDC held in its products, including Base, jumped 44% to $20 billion, making it the exchange's most rate-sensitive revenue line.
  • •Robinhood's net interest revenue rose 9% to $389 million last quarter and exceeded $748 million in the first half of the year, driven by interest-earning cash deposits, though its diversified operations reduce reliance on interest income.
  • •Circle's recently launched Arc Layer 1 network is gaining traction, recording increases in stablecoin assets and total value locked.
Circle, Coinbase and Robinhood Stand to Benefit as US Bond Yields Jump

US Treasury yields climbed again on Sept. 23, drawing fresh attention to crypto-linked equities whose business models generate interest-driven revenue. The move came as Bitcoin traded near $84,000 and the global crypto market capitalization fell to roughly $2.87 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap.

Circle, Coinbase and Robinhood all operate business lines that produce interest-linked income, but higher Treasury yields do not affect the three companies equally. The distinction between short-term and long-term yields also matters: Circle's stablecoin reserves are held primarily in short-term government securities and overnight repurchase agreements, while Robinhood and Coinbase draw interest-related revenue from a broader set of sources.

Why U.S. Treasury Yields Are Rising

US bond yields are climbing amid an ongoing surge in US debt. Public debt has risen to more than $40.2 trillion, weeks after crossing the $40 trillion milestone. That increase, combined with the fact that the Trump administration has not put forward strategies to reduce the debt, has raised concerns about US creditworthiness. Heavier government borrowing expands the supply of Treasuries that investors must absorb — a dynamic that typically puts upward pressure on yields — while elevated inflation erodes the fixed payments bonds deliver, prompting buyers to demand higher compensation.

Yields are also being pushed higher by elevated crude oil prices, which have driven diesel prices to an all-time high. Gasoline prices and mortgage rates have soared this year as well, fueling inflation concerns. As a result, the Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates this year. For readers tracking the situation, the signals to watch are the debt trajectory, energy prices and the Fed's upcoming policy decisions, each of which feeds directly into the rate environment these crypto-linked firms earn from.

Circle's Business Model Aligns With Higher Yields

Circle Internet Group stands out among crypto companies positioned to benefit from rising bond yields because of its business model, which centers on issuing stablecoins and investing the backing reserves in government bonds — a structure in which reserve yield is the primary revenue engine and moves in lockstep with short-term rates.

The company's USDC market capitalization has climbed to $75.4 billion, a trend expected to continue following its latest partnership with Binance. Circle invests its reserves in short-term government bonds maturing in about three months. Those bonds are now yielding 4.14%, the highest level since September 2025 and well above the year-to-date low of 3.58%.

Assuming an average USDC market capitalization of $75.4 billion and a 4.14% yield, Circle's annual revenue would exceed $3.1 billion. Its actual revenue would be considerably lower because of distribution deals, particularly with Coinbase, which retains all of its interest income. The revenue equation therefore hinges on two inputs — USDC in circulation and the short-term yield on reserves — and both have moved higher recently.

Separately, Circle is seeing strong traction in its recently launched Arc Layer 1 network, which has recorded jumps in stablecoin assets and total value locked (TVL).

Robinhood Gains From Cash Holdings and Diversification

Robinhood (HOOD) may also benefit from rising interest rates for two main reasons. First, the platform holds large cash deposits, enabling it to earn substantial sums in interest. This is a structural revenue line for brokerages: when the rates earned on cash balances rise, so does the income generated from them.

In its most recent earnings report, the company said net interest revenue rose 9% in the last quarter to $389 million, citing growth in interest-earning assets. In the first six months of the year, net interest revenue exceeded $748 million.

Robinhood's business is also highly diversified, encompassing the fast-growing Robinhood Chain, a predictions marketplace, options trading, retirement services and tokenized assets — mix that keeps the company from relying on any single revenue stream, including interest income.

Coinbase Benefits Through Its Stablecoin Business

Coinbase is another crypto stock positioned to benefit from the surge in bond yields, with the main uplift expected to come from its high-margin stablecoin business, driven by its partnership with Circle.

The most recent results showed that the average USDC held in Coinbase products, including Base, jumped 44% to $20 billion. The stablecoin business generated $292 million in revenue in the second quarter of the year. Rising interest rates mean this revenue stream is likely to continue growing in the coming months. Because that income depends on both USDC balances and short-term yields, it stands out as Coinbase's most rate-sensitive revenue line.

At the same time, Coinbase has diversified its operations and is now a leading provider of tokenized stocks and prediction solutions.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or financial advice. Stocks and cryptocurrencies involve market risk.