Trade Desk (TTD) Stock Jumps 15.5% as Q3 Results Top Estimates and Q4 Outlook Beats
Key Takeaways
- •The Trade Desk's stock jumped 15.5% to $14.93 after third-quarter revenue of $736 million and adjusted EPS of $0.33 both exceeded analyst estimates.
- •The company guided fourth-quarter revenue to at least $755 million, above the $688 million consensus, with adjusted EBITDA expected at a minimum of $280 million.
- •Adjusted EBITDA of $266 million far exceeded the $161 million estimate and customer retention stayed above 95%, though the EBITDA margin contracted 700 basis points year over year.
- •Jefferies noted that excluding political spending and one-time items, third-quarter revenue fell 8.5%, and the fourth-quarter guide implies an 18% drop without political ads.
- •The company cut roughly 15% of its workforce in September, a move Truist estimated could save up to $150 million a year, as it works to mend ties with agency Publicis amid competition from Amazon and Google.
Shares of The Trade Desk (TTD) closed up 15.5% at $14.93 on Monday after the advertising technology company reported third-quarter results that topped analyst estimates and issued a fourth-quarter outlook above consensus. The company sells software that advertisers and agencies use to buy digital advertising programmatically. It was the stock's biggest one-day gain since March 5, when shares rose 18.4%.
The after-hours session was a bit of a roller coaster. The stock climbed about 20% in late trading, then slipped 1.2% to $14.75 in premarket trading on Tuesday, giving back a fraction of the evening's advance. Even with the pop, shares remain down 60.7% in 2026. November has been kinder, delivering a 21.5% gain that stands as the stock's best month since July 2025.
The ad tech company posted adjusted earnings of 33 cents a share, ahead of the 25 cents analysts had expected, according to FactSet. Revenue came in at $736 million, down 0.5% from a year earlier but above the $650.9 million that Wall Street had penciled in.
THE TRADE DESK $TTD Q3’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS
🔹 Revenue: $736M (Est. $650M) 🟢; -0.5% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.33 (Est. $0.25) 🟢; -27% YoY
🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $266M (Est. $161M) 🟢
🔹 Adj. EBITDA Margin: 36%; -700 bps YoY
🔹 Customer Retention: Over 95%Q4 Guide: 🔹 Revenue: At least… pic.twitter.com/A8LR7XBg6T
— Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) November 9, 2026
Beyond the headline figures, the quarter included adjusted EBITDA of $266 million, well above the $161 million estimate, along with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 36% that contracted 700 basis points year over year and customer retention above 95%, a gauge of how many advertisers kept spending on the platform. Adjusted earnings per share were down 27% from a year earlier, according to the figures shared by Wall St Engine. Management said stronger execution helped the quarter come in better than planned. The company also introduced new AI-driven tools during the period, including Zuma and Audience Unlimited.
What the Guidance Says
For the fourth quarter, Trade Desk expects revenue of at least $755 million, ahead of the $688 million consensus. The company also expects adjusted EBITDA of at least $280 million. Like the revenue target, that figure is a floor rather than a fixed number. The outlook would mark an increase from the third quarter's $736 million in revenue.
Some analysts cautioned that the underlying trend remains uneven even after the beat. Jefferies looked past the political ad boost: excluding political spending and one-time items, third-quarter revenue fell 8.5%, compared with a 3.0% gain in the second quarter. The firm says the fourth-quarter guide implies an 18% drop when political ads are left out. Rosenblatt expects revenue declines to speed up in the quarter, even with help from midterm election spending.
The Road Back
Trade Desk cut about 15% of its workforce in September, a move Truist estimated could save up to $150 million a year. The company is also mending ties with Publicis, an agency that once made up a mid-teens percentage of its revenue. Truist said spending from the agency dropped after a dispute, with some business moving to Google.
Competition from Amazon and Google adds to the pressure. StoneX called 2026 a “lost year” for the company and said the recovery depends partly on how Trade Desk handles Amazon's pricing pressure. Truist said management “has pushed the reset button” on 2026 guidance, and it views 2027 as a year of stabilization and 2028 as a “growth year.”
Jefferies raised its price target to $14 from $12 and kept its Hold rating, while leaving its 2027 revenue growth estimate unchanged at 7%. Truist lifted its target to $17, also with a Hold. Trade Desk now has a market cap of about $7.06 billion.
Source: CoinCentral
