TIA, the native token of the Celestia data availability network, was trading at $0.4807 — just above the $0.475–$0.476 zone it recently reclaimed — when Kraken's daily chart was captured at 06:28 UTC on October 4. The unfinished daily candle showed a gain of 1.65%, although trading on both sides of the level showed buyers had yet to establish a clear hold above it.

September's Failed Hold Raises the Bar for This Recovery

The zone resisted earlier advances, including in May and early September. TIA eventually cleared it on the way toward $0.54, but the subsequent decline took the price back underneath. The latest attempt follows the broader altcoin gains covered in Coindoo's October 1 market review, and that earlier reversal makes a sustained hold especially important for the token this time.

A daily close above the zone, followed by continued trading above it in subsequent sessions, would show buyers accepting prices beyond the old resistance. If a pullback then attracts buying near $0.475–$0.476, it would add evidence that the level is turning into support. Such a retest would be useful if it occurs, but the recovery does not require the price to return to the line immediately.

Holding above the zone would leave $0.49–$0.50 as the next resistance area, followed by September's reaction highs around $0.51–$0.54. Only a move beyond the upper end of that range, including the wick near $0.54, would extend the recovery past September's peak. At the chart's timestamp, TIA remained roughly 11% below that high.

A Failed Reclaim Would Put the Rising Trendline Back in Play

If TIA closes below the reclaimed zone and struggles to recover it, attention would shift to the rising trendline beneath price. The line connects September's low near $0.32 with the later higher low around $0.425, projecting support near $0.44–$0.45 at the latest candles. Because that estimate rises with the line, its position will change over time.

A break below the trendline would weaken the immediate advance, particularly if subsequent rebounds stalled beneath it. Losing $0.425 afterward would do more damage, since it would break the recent pattern of higher lows. These are separate tests: a brief move through the diagonal line would not, by itself, erase the broader recovery.

The daily moving averages still favor the recovery. TIA is above all three — the 50, 100, and 200-day simple moving averages — with the 50 SMA above the 100 SMA and the 200 SMA, although they sit too far below price to confirm the immediate support test. Momentum is less emphatic: the relative strength index, which compares recent gains with losses, stands at 59.30 — above its neutral midpoint of 50 but below its smoothing line at 60.40.

The RSI has recovered from the latest pullback without regaining September's overbought readings, which on this indicator conventionally begin above 70. Further improvement, alongside price holding the reclaimed zone as support, would reinforce the rebound, especially with stronger trading volume in completed sessions. The current Kraken volume bar remains, so it cannot yet provide a like-for-like comparison with earlier full days.

What Celestia Is Building Beyond the Price Chart

Celestia's recent development work centers on the service applications pay to use: data availability, a way for blockchains to publish transaction data so participants can access the records needed to check their history. That access requirement is what makes publication a service in its own right — dedicated networks like Celestia supply it so other chains can focus on their own processing. A payment application, for example, could process transfers on its own blockchain and publish the associated data through Celestia. The application would remain responsible for determining whether payments are valid, while Celestia helps make the underlying records available. Increasing publication capacity could therefore support applications that generate more data than existing systems can comfortably handle.

Fibre is Celestia's effort to expand that capacity. The project's Mocha testnet activated v10 on September 24, followed by a notice asking validators to configure Fibre servers. The testnet allows changes to be tested before deployment on the live network.

On October 1, Celestia reported that Fibre averaged 3.07 terabits per second across 120 validators in a 143-second test covering data distribution and on-chain confirmation. That figure measures the volume of data the system handled, rather than the number of payments it executed. The test used an experimental software version and settings that differ from the planned initial mainnet release.

Celestia intends to introduce Fibre with capacity matched to early demand, then expand as usage grows. The announcement did not provide a fixed launch date, leaving live deployment as the next development milestone to watch.

Paying Applications Tie Fibre to TIA Demand

Applications pay data-publication fees TIA, which is also staked to secure the network. Staking, in this context, means holders delegate tokens to validators that help confirm data availability, earning rewards in return. That dual role ties the token directly to usage of the network. More capable infrastructure could attract additional applications, but the economic benefit depends on how much those applications actually spend. A throughput benchmark measures capacity; recurring publication activity and fees show how much of the service customers use.

Cheaper publication can encourage adoption while reducing fees per unit of data, which means more usage is needed to generate the same revenue at lower prices. Tracking paying applications, the data they publish, and the fees they pay together would help assess whether Fibre expands demand for Celestia's service. None of those measures translates mechanically into a higher token price.

October Also Brings a Supply Milestone

Alongside demand, TIA holders face an approaching change in the token's vesting schedule. Celestia's published schedule implies that continuous vesting for initial core contributors finishes around October 30, 2026. That would complete an ongoing release schedule, rather than introduce a new one-day cliff unlock.

New issuance remains separate from allocated tokens becoming transferable. The November 2025 upgrade reduced annual inflation to approximately 2.5%, with further gradual reductions scheduled, while research and ecosystem vesting continues through year four. Staking rewards also add tokens to circulation, so completing contributor vesting would neither end supply growth nor determine whether existing holders sell.

The Next Close Matters More Than the Day's Gain

A sustained hold above $0.475–$0.476 would keep September's highs in view. Another failed reclaim would instead bring the rising trendline back into focus, testing whether buyers can preserve the higher lows behind the recovery.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Technical levels reflect the October 4, 2026 chart and do not guarantee future price movements.

Source: Coindoo