Nearly 30 Years After IMF Rescue, Thailand Pushes Investment-Led Growth Plan
Key Takeaways
- •Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas, who witnessed the 1997 baht devaluation as a graduate student, is now prioritizing investment-led growth policies as Bangkok prepares to host the IMF and World Bank annual meetings.
- •The government targets 3% economic growth within three years by drawing foreign investment into semiconductors, data centers, and advanced manufacturing, up from an average annual growth rate of 2.34% over the last five years.
- •IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned of global threats from persistently high energy prices, record public debt, and AI investment boom risks, while Thailand's public debt-to-GDP ratio nears its official 70% ceiling.
- •Fitch Ratings revised Thailand's outlook to stable from negative last month, citing better-than-expected resilience to the global energy shock and improved policy predictability following the February 2026 general elections.
- •Persistent challenges include one of Southeast Asia's heaviest household debt burdens, declining tourism arrivals, an unresolved trade deal with Washington, and the central bank's conservative estimate that potential growth of 2.7% could take at least four years to reach.

BANGKOK — When Thailand devalued the baht in 1997, setting off the Asian financial crisis, Ekniti Nitithanprapas was a young graduate student in the United States. The turmoil swept across Asia, pushing economies from Indonesia to South Korea into international rescues, and Thailand’s own IMF-led package totaled roughly $17 billion. A loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and a raft of recovery measures eventually helped the country find a way out of the economic morass.
Nearly 30 years on, the roles have shifted: Mr. Nitithanprapas is now Thailand’s finance minister, and Bangkok is set to host the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank next week — a gathering of finance ministers, central bankers and development officials from around the world. He is working to steer the economy through a new challenge — how to escape years of sluggish growth.
“After the financial crisis, our investment-to-GDP has declined to around 22% to 23% at the moment. So that’s why our growth momentum has been so slow,” Mr. Nitithanprapas told Reuters in an interview. “After I took the position as finance minister, I put it at the top of my agenda to push investment-led growth policies.”
Global Risks in Focus
Ahead of the Bangkok meetings, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that the global economy was under threat from persistently high energy prices, record public debt and risks stemming from the AI investment boom — all factors bearing on Thailand, where the public debt-to-GDP ratio is nearing the official ceiling of 70%.
‘Holding Up Better’
Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy has grown by an average of only 2.34% a year over the last five years, lagging regional peers that recovered more swiftly from the pandemic. Last month, Mr. Nitithanprapas outlined a plan to reach 3% growth within three years by drawing foreign investment into key sectors such as semiconductors, data centers and advanced manufacturing, including electric vehicles — sectors that have become focal points of intensifying global competition for investment.
As a net energy importer, Thailand is also investing in renewables as it seeks to develop such resource-hungry industries. The central bank, however, holds a more conservative view, putting the economy’s potential growth rate at 2.7% — a level it says could take at least four years to reach.
Headwinds persist, including a thorny household debt problem — one of the heaviest in Southeast Asia relative to GDP — sliding tourism arrivals in an economy where travel has long been a pillar of growth and foreign-exchange earnings, and an unresolved trade deal with Washington. Even so, the Thai economy is showing resilience — a far cry from its situation in 1997.
“Thailand’s economy is holding up better than expected in the face of the global energy shock, deflationary pressures have receded, and policy predictability has improved following general elections in February 2026,” Fitch Ratings said last month, revising Thailand’s outlook to “stable” from “negative”.
Political Ownership
During the turbulence of 1997, as Asian stock markets and currencies plunged, it was Chuan Leekpai’s return as prime minister that helped turn the tide, said Anoop Singh, who led the IMF’s mission to Thailand during the crisis.
“As soon as that happened, there was political ownership, political recognition and reforms,” the now-retired Mr. Singh said in an interview. “All the IMF is trying to do is to understand what the problem is, suggest to the government what they should do, but they have to do it. So the political ownership is the most important.”
Thailand has seen prime ministers removed by courts or military coups, alongside deadly street protests, in the decades since the crisis. But with the re-election of Anutin Charnvirakul in February, the country has entered a period of relative political calm, bringing some relief to the stuttering economy.
A Neutral Investment Destination
In the weeks after the surprise win, analysts cheered the broad coalition Mr. Anutin rapidly stitched together and his backing for technocrats such as Mr. Nitithanprapas, while questioning the new administration’s appetite for overhauling the economy.
Pressed on what he considered the most critical structural reforms required, Mr. Nitithanprapas again stressed the need for a shift to renewable energy and upgraded grid infrastructure, the build-up of sectors such as semiconductors and data centers, and an improved talent pool for high-tech industries.
At a time of heightened geopolitical strife and trade tensions, Mr. Nitithanprapas is also promoting Thailand as a neutral and secure investment destination — a pitch he plans to make at the IMF-World Bank meeting.
“Given global economic situations, we have a fragmented world. We need some countries to link fragmented economies, and Thailand can be a trusted connector,” he said.
— Reuters