The implied probability of a merger between Tesla, Inc. and SpaceX has risen to 67%, according to an update from prediction market platform Kalshi. Earlier this week, Kalshi’s market had placed the probability at 60%.

The increase follows renewed speculation about a potential combination of the two companies led by Elon Musk, who serves as chief executive of both — Tesla, a publicly traded electric-vehicle maker, and SpaceX, a privately held aerospace company. Activity surrounding the possibility intensified after Barclays published an analysis examining the potential benefits of a Tesla–SpaceX merger.

Kalshi, a U.S. exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), allows traders to buy and sell contracts tied to the outcomes of real-world events. The resulting probability is derived from trading activity and reflects the collective positioning of participants rather than any assessment by the platform itself. For that reason, Kalshi’s market-based probability is not evidence that Tesla and SpaceX are engaged in negotiations. Neither company has made an official announcement confirming that a merger is under consideration or in progress.

The updated odds reflect increased activity and confidence among participants in the prediction market, but they do not establish that a transaction will occur. There is currently no concrete evidence or official confirmation of a merger agreement. The same distinction applies to the Barclays report, which represents an analytical perspective on a hypothetical combination rather than a signal of corporate action by either company. The movement in odds also illustrates how quickly event-contract prices can shift when speculation around a potential corporate outcome intensifies.

Future developments to monitor include official communications from Tesla or SpaceX, including any announcement or denial related to a potential merger. Formal filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or public statements by Elon Musk would provide additional information. Regulatory actions, board-level developments, and other formal company disclosures could also affect whether a merger agreement is considered or advanced.

As the year progresses, the market’s response to new information will remain a key indicator of how participants assess the likelihood of a merger announcement. The original report is available from CryptoBriefing.