Technology stocks are under renewed pressure heading into Friday's North American session, with disappointing earnings from Amazon and a sharply negative reaction to Intel's results compounding concerns about the spending, profitability and expectations built into the artificial-intelligence trade.

The weakness is concentrated in technology: Nasdaq 100 futures are down 785 points and S&P 500 futures are down 84 points, while Dow futures hold a modest 15-point gain. That divergence matters — technology is leading the pressure, while the Dow shows greater resilience. Part of the split is structural: the Nasdaq 100 is weighted toward the large technology companies at the heart of the AI trade, while the Dow's price-weighted composition gives them a smaller influence on the index.

Elsewhere, the U.S. dollar is mostly lower and Treasury yields are falling across the curve. Crude oil, however, is moving higher despite President Trump's optimistic comments about an end to the Iran war, leaving traders to balance weaker technology sentiment against an energy market that continues to signal concern.

Amazon and Intel deepen the technology selloff

Amazon missed expectations for both earnings and revenue, while Intel beat adjusted EPS estimates but missed on revenue — and Intel's shares are suffering a far larger decline.

The broader question for investors remains: are the earnings and future cash flows strong enough to justify the spending and valuations attached to AI? A beat alone does not guarantee a positive stock reaction. Investors also weigh guidance, margins, capital spending and how much good news was already reflected in the share price. Sandisk's decline despite beating both supplied estimates illustrates that distinction.

The earnings comparisons and early share reactions:

U.S. stock-index futures at a glance:

• Dow Industrial Average futures: up 15 points
• S&P 500 futures: down 84 points
• Nasdaq 100 futures: down 785 points

ECB officials: yesterday's hold leaves further hikes in play

The morning after the European Central Bank left rates unchanged, officials are reinforcing the message that the inflation battle is unfinished. The common thread is a willingness to tighten further, with differences over how quickly action may be needed and how much tightening financial markets are already delivering.

Martin Kocher — a conditional warning about further tightening. Kocher said inflation risks have clearly increased and that a monetary policy response will be necessary if conditions do not improve soon. His comments suggest limited patience with persistent inflation pressure while acknowledging the risks of acting prematurely. The message for traders: the unchanged decision should not be interpreted as confidence that inflation is under control.

Fabio Panetta — further hikes may be needed, but bond yields matter. Panetta said more rate increases may be necessary and warned that the increase in core inflation could become more pronounced early next year. He stressed, however, that the ECB must consider the recent rise in longer-term bond yields when calibrating policy, since higher market borrowing costs can restrain demand without an additional hike. Panetta also left room to adjust policy promptly if international conditions improve or financial tensions slow inflation. His message is conditional: further tightening remains possible, but the ECB must assess how much restraint is already working through the economy.

Joachim Nagel — ready to act, limited second-round effects so far. Nagel said policymakers would act decisively if needed, while noting that significant second-round effects have not appeared thus far. That distinction matters: an energy-price shock can lift headline inflation directly, and the greater concern is whether businesses and workers respond in ways that embed higher inflation in broader prices and wages.

The overall ECB message: the hold preserves flexibility, but further hikes remain an option. Persistent core inflation would strengthen the case for action, while higher bond yields and an improvement in the energy outlook could reduce the need for additional tightening.

Trump talks up an end to the Iran war, but oil moves higher

President Trump said in an interview this morning that the Iran war would end very soon, “one way or another,” and that gasoline prices would decline. Separately, in a Truth Social post, he asserted that inflation is way down under his administration and that incomes for people and companies are higher. Those are the president's claims; traders will continue to judge the inflation outlook through incoming data and energy prices. The equity tumble is unfolding ahead of next week's election.

An accompanying Al Arabiya report, citing sources, says the U.S. has informed mediators that Iran abandoning its nuclear programme is the basis for negotiations. Mediators are reportedly discussing access for inspectors to Iran's nuclear sites in exchange for the release of some frozen funds.

That points to diplomatic discussions, but it does not establish an agreement — and the gap between discussing terms and securing an enforceable settlement remains important for markets. Follow-through to watch: confirmation from the governments involved and any movement on the reported exchange of inspector access for frozen funds.

For now, crude is moving in the opposite direction to the president's anticipated price relief. WTI is at $104.13, up $2.13 or 2.09%, suggesting traders still require evidence of an improvement in the supply and security outlook.

U.S. dollar lower against most major currencies

The dollar is lower against six of the seven major currencies in the snapshot, with the Australian dollar unchanged. The Swiss franc is the strongest against the dollar, followed by the Japanese yen and the British pound, while the Australian dollar is the weakest performer within the group, holding flat.

• EURUSD: 1.1194, up 0.14%
• USDJPY: 157.03, down 0.42%
• GBPUSD: 1.3426, up 0.38%
• USDCHF: 0.8205, down 0.45%
• USDCAD: 1.3956, down 0.23%
• AUDUSD: 0.7027, unchanged
• NZDUSD: 0.5645, up 0.21%

The gains in the franc and yen are consistent with defensive positioning, although the dollar's broader retreat shows that the currency moves extend beyond those two traditional havens.

Currency ranges: USDJPY is testing the bottom

Session ranges, from low to high:

• EURUSD: 1.1174–1.1214 — 40 pips (1-month average: 67 pips)
• USDJPY: 157.00–157.89 — 89 pips (1-month average: 72 pips)
• GBPUSD: 1.3375–1.3433 — 58 pips (1-month average: 84 pips)
• USDCHF: 0.8195–0.8247 — 52 pips (1-month average: 52 pips)
• USDCAD: 1.3951–1.3992 — 41 pips (1-month average: 63 pips)
• AUDUSD: 0.7018–0.7043 — 25 pips (1-month average: 43 pips)
• NZDUSD: 0.5625–0.5651 — 26 pips (1-month average: 44 pips)

USDJPY is trading just above its session low, while GBPUSD is close to its high. Those locations make the respective extremes immediate reference points for a continuation or a failed break.

Treasury yields fall, led by intermediate maturities

U.S. yields are lower across the curve, with the five-year yield down approximately 10 basis points.

• 2-year: 4.5689%, down 8.71 basis points
• 5-year: 4.7021%, down 9.99 basis points
• 10-year: 4.9083%, down 8.07 basis points
• 30-year: 5.2815%, down 4.75 basis points

Falling yields can provide some valuation support for equities, but that support is being overwhelmed in technology by the earnings reaction. For currencies, lower U.S. yields are also consistent with the dollar's softer tone.

European 10-year yields are mixed: Germany is at 3.327%, France at 4.951%, the UK at 5.276%, Spain at 3.950% and Italy at 4.495%. France stands out, with its yield rising while the others shown are lower.

European stocks mostly lower

• Germany's DAX: 25,838.35, down 0.77%
• France's CAC 40: 7,969.03, down 0.01%
• UK's FTSE 100: 10,734.24, up 0.11%
• Spain's IBEX: 18,750.20, down 0.57%
• Euro Stoxx 50: 18,692.19, down 0.88%
• Italy's FTSE MIB: 49,463.93, down 1.08%

Oil rises while metals and Bitcoin retreat

The commodity snapshot shows a clear divergence between energy and metals. Gold is back below the $4,000 level, and Bitcoin is below the $80,000 level.

• WTI crude oil: $104.13, up $2.13 or 2.09%
• Spot gold: $3,967.94, down approximately $52.63 or 1.31%
• Silver: $50.2332, down 3.66%
• Copper: $6.5170, down 1.29%
• Bitcoin: $77,335, down $458 or 0.59%

Gold's decline despite lower Treasury yields and a softer dollar shows why traders cannot rely on one relationship alone — price action remains the final barometer.

North American calendar: employment costs and Canadian growth

The main scheduled releases are:

• 8:30 AM ET — U.S. Employment Cost Index, Q3 — forecast +0.8% q/q (previous +0.9%)
• 8:30 AM ET — Canadian GDP, August — forecast +0.2% m/m (previous 0.0%)
• 9:45 AM ET — Chicago PMI, October — previous 58.8

The Employment Cost Index is particularly relevant to the question of persistent inflation: it measures what employers pay in wages, salaries and benefits — one of the broadest gauges of compensation pressure in the economy — so a stronger reading would suggest compensation pressures remain firm, while a softer result would offer some reassurance on labor costs. Canadian GDP will provide the next domestic growth test for the Canadian dollar.

Today is also the final trading day of October, and month-end flows could complicate intraday moves alongside earnings, economic data and geopolitical headlines.

Source: Morning Kickstart: Tech hammered as Amazon and Intel tumble; oil rises despite peace talk — ForexLive