Tavi Costa, Founder & CEO of Azuria Capital, believes Bitcoin looks “very undervalued” right now, observing that many former supporters have given up on the asset. In a new interview, he explains why he expects Bitcoin and silver to see “violent moves” as the Federal Reserve’s hiking cycle comes to an end. The end of a hiking cycle is a closely watched inflection point for hard-asset investors, since it marks the pivot away from the tighter monetary conditions that have framed markets throughout the tightening phase.

Costa shared his outlook on Bitcoin Magazine’s BMTV (watch the full video). Beyond his Bitcoin and silver thesis, he laid out the two macro forces he believes will define the next decade — a weaker dollar and suppressed yields — and explained why silver and the mining stocks have become his favorite hard-asset trade. Together, those two forces form the backdrop against which he frames both Bitcoin and silver as candidates for the sharp moves he anticipates.

Sticky Inflation, Spending, and a Weaker Dollar

According to the video’s chapter breakdown, the interview opens with sticky inflation and what Costa describes as out-of-control government spending. From there, he makes the case for why the dollar will surprise people on the downside — a dynamic that underpins his broader preference for hard assets as the hiking cycle ends. The sequencing of his argument connects the pieces: persistent inflation and fiscal pressure, in his telling, feed directly into the case for a weaker dollar and, by extension, the hard-asset trade.

Gold Miners, Bitcoin, and a “Macro Arbitrage”

Costa connects the ongoing gold miners rally to his view that Bitcoin looks undervalued, arguing that mining stocks look like a macro arbitrage. He also places silver and Bitcoin in very similar positions, framing both as candidates for the sharp moves he anticipates. The framing is notable for a macro investor whose preferred trade spans mining equities: it treats Bitcoin as part of the same hard-asset complex as gold miners and silver, rather than as a separate category of risk.

Silver Supply Constraints and the AI Buildout

A substantial portion of the discussion focuses on silver. Costa addresses gold’s 30% drawdown within a secular bull market, points to tight floats and a 65% silver miner book, and contends that there is no AI revolution without metal. He further explains why lab-made gold isn’t a threat to the metal supply, and why you can’t just create a high-grade silver mine. The supply constraints he describes carry added weight because silver serves both monetary and industrial roles, with demand running through electronics, solar manufacturing, and the hardware that underpins data-center buildouts.

Brazil and the Commodities Story

The interview also covers Brazil after Lula’s re-election and its place in the broader commodities story, before returning to Costa’s central thesis: Bitcoin and silver into the end of the hiking cycle. Brazil — a leading exporter of raw materials — gives the discussion a concrete geographic anchor, showing how commodity-producing economies fit into the wider hard-asset picture.

For readers tracking the thesis from here, the markers to watch are the levers Costa himself identifies: the Fed’s policy path, the dollar’s trajectory, and silver’s supply dynamics — the variables he argues will shape whether Bitcoin and silver see the moves he anticipates.

The full interview is available on Bitcoin Magazine’s YouTube channel. The original post appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and was written by Patrick Green.

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