ZURICH — Swiss voters will go to the polls on November 29 to decide whether to block legislation that would relax restrictions on weapons exports, in a referendum that probes the limits of Switzerland's long-standing neutrality and faces strong opposition from the country's arms industry.

Switzerland's neutrality is grounded in the 1907 Hague Conventions, which bar the country from participating in armed conflicts unless directly threatened and from providing military support to any party to a conflict.

That posture, which largely held throughout the Cold War, has begun to shift since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 prompted Bern to deepen its defense ties with European partners and the transatlantic NATO alliance.

Opinion polls suggest the referendum — proposed by a coalition of left-wing parties including the Social Democrats and the Greens — could go either way. Some right-wing politicians have also split from the Swiss People's Party (SVP) to oppose the amendment, which cannot enter into until the vote is held. The challenge relies on Switzerland's system of direct democracy, under which citizens can force a binding nationwide vote capable of blocking laws passed by parliament.

Can a neutral country send weapons to a nation at war?

"In future, Swiss war material could in certain cases be passed to belligerent states," said Fabian Molina, a lawmaker for the leftist Social Democrats. "That would violate neutrality."

The amendment is intended to allow arms shipments to 36 Western countries even if they are involved in active armed conflicts, though not for use in those conflicts. Ukraine, however, is not included.

It would also scrap a requirement for purchasing countries to sign a non-re-export declaration. Bern previously blocked several countries from sending Swiss-made ammunition and combat vehicles they had bought to Ukraine; Germany subsequently excluded Swiss firms from procurement deals, while Denmark and the Netherlands halted orders. The episode illustrates how Bern's export rules have already shaped procurement decisions among its European neighbors.

Even under the new rules, the amendment would not apply to weaponry bought on the previous terms or purchased with the intention of immediately sending it to a third party — a carve-out that still excludes Ukraine.

Centre Party lawmaker Reto Nause said the law needed to be overhauled to reflect a more dangerous international environment. "We're facing a level of threat we haven't seen since the Second World War," he said. "Part of being able to defend yourself is having a domestic arms industry, having some production capacity and above all know-how in key technologies."

Nause added that the non-re-export declaration would deter NATO countries from buying Swiss armaments, because they want to be able to share weapons if the alliance is attacked.

Affected manufacturers include Germany's Rheinmetall, which builds anti-drone defense systems in Switzerland; French defense group Thales; small-arms maker SIG Sauer; and more than 100 other companies.

Switzerland among top 20 arms exporters

Switzerland was the world's 17th-largest arms exporter over the past 10 years, according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. The sector employs 14,000 people, and its exports were worth around $1.15 billion last year.

Manufacturers fear for their future if the law is not amended, arguing that the domestic market is too small. Their supporters note that a further 154,000 jobs are tied to companies making "dual use" products for both military and civilian purposes.

"This is decisive, it's really 'go' or 'no go' for the future of the Swiss arms industry," said Matthias Zoller, general secretary of the Swiss Aeronautics, Security and Defense Association, which represents the industry.

Zoller said it was crucial for Switzerland to have its own armaments industry, but warned that manufacturers could simply move abroad if exports were excessively restricted. If Switzerland could no longer sell arms abroad, he added, it could expect to go to the back of the line when buying new systems — or even components — from other countries.

Green Party lawmaker Gerhard Andrey said ceding control of where Swiss arms go was "not a neutral choice," noting that exports were just below record levels last year despite the restrictions.

Mirjam Hostetmann, leader of the youth wing of the Social Democrats, said relaxing the law could lead to Swiss weapons increasingly being used in civil wars or by rogue governments.

"It's an illusion to believe that more weapons will guarantee more peace," she said. "Nobody benefits from these changes apart from the arms industry."

Attention now turns to the November 29 ballot, whose outcome will decide whether the amendment takes effect or whether the current export restrictions remain in place.

Source: BusinessWorld. Reporting by Reuters.