Suspicious prediction market bets placed ahead of New York Times/Siena poll releases
Key Takeaways
- •A Polymarket user wagered almost $200,000 on Oct. 31 that Nebraska Senator Pete Ricketts would win re-election, and a Times/Siena poll showing Ricketts in the lead was released an hour later.
- •The user won more than $77,000 and placed similarly large bets on other prediction markets, including the US-regulated exchange Kalshi, though it remains unclear whether they had access to inside information.
- •Brett Goldstein of the Vanderbilt Institute of National Security said the series of circumstances is hard to dismiss as random and requires further investigation.
- •Polymarket said it spotted the trades and was investigating as of the report, while Kalshi declined to comment, highlighting an unresolved question of how platforms should handle trades potentially based on nonpublic information.
- •In a separate case, the Department of Justice charged Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke with earning more than $400,000 on Polymarket using classified information tied to Operation Absolute Resolve, which led to the January capture of Nicolás Maduro in Caracas, Venezuela.
Suspicious bets on prediction markets were placed shortly before two recent New York Times/Siena political polls — recurring voter surveys produced by The New York Times in partnership with Siena College — were released to the public, according to a report.
Researchers at Vanderbilt University said a Polymarket user wagered almost $200,000 on Oct. 31 that Nebraska Senator Pete Ricketts would win re-election. An hour later, a Times/Siena poll was released showing Ricketts in the lead.
A report published Friday by The New York Times said that, while it remains unclear whether the user had access to inside information, they won more than $77,000. The user also placed similarly large bets on other prediction markets, including Kalshi, a US-regulated exchange where traders buy and sell event contracts.
“There’s a series of circumstances here that it’s hard to write it off as a random occurrence,” said Brett Goldstein of the Vanderbilt Institute of National Security. It “requires further investigation.”
Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market where users trade on the outcomes of real-world events, said it had spotted the trades and was investigating — a review that remained open as of the report. Kalshi declined to comment. The episodes spotlight an unresolved question for the sector: how platforms should detect and act on trades that may rely on information that is not yet public.
In a separate case, Cointelegraph reported in April that a US Army soldier had been charged after making more than $400,000 by betting on a prediction market allegedly using nonpublic information tied to a US operation involving then-Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
In a statement, the Department of Justice alleged that Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke was involved in the planning and execution of Operation Absolute Resolve, which led to the capture of Maduro at a residence in Caracas, Venezuela, in January. The department also published related case materials. The charges show US authorities treating alleged trading on classified information in prediction markets as a federal criminal matter.
According to the DOJ, Van Dyke allegedly used the information to buy “yes” shares — contracts that pay out if the stated event occurs — in related Polymarket contracts, including “Maduro out by January 31” and “Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31.”
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