Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) has officially conceded the Maine Senate race to Democratic challenger Troy Jackson, a result that moves the seat from Republican to Democratic hands and factors into the broader math for control of the Senate.

Collins struggled to recover from a rocky debate performance in early October, where the two candidates clashed over abortion, ICE and Trump. The exchange raised questions about whether she was capable of understanding the plight of Americans suffering in President Donald Trump's economy. Collins touted her chief accomplishment in the affordability fight: lowering tariffs on road salt.

Jackson shot back, "You can't eat road salt." The retort prompted Collins' critics to note that she was out of touch with those fighting for affordable food and fuel. In the current economy, some Mainers have been more focused on the high price of beef and the heightened trade war with neighboring Canada.

Matters worsened when Jackson criticized Collins for having been a government employee for most of her adult life and for holding employer-funded health care. Collins retorted that she had once gone a full year without health insurance.

Collins has also drawn criticism in recent years for her 2018 vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh despite his stance against reproductive freedom. She has consistently maintained that she is pro-choice, but her recent votes have not reflected that. While Collins had previously won big with female voters, there was concern this cycle that she could lose ground among those horrified by the elimination of reproductive rights.

The Cook Political Report listed the race as a toss-up, and as with many of Collins' past elections, polls had her neck and neck.

A Marist survey conducted October 1–4 put Jackson ahead with 51 percent to Collins' 47 percent among registered voters; in that poll, Independents favored Jackson 52–45. Meanwhile, a CBS News/YouGov poll put the race at a 50–50 tie. Whether the final margin lands closer to the Marist four-point spread or the CBS News/YouGov tie will be an early measure of how well the polls captured the electorate.

The polls revealed an unusual demographic division ahead of the election: Collins was heavily favored by voters over 50 (53–44), while Jackson held a 25-point advantage among those under 50, according to an AARP poll. Although some generations have been known for high political participation, particularly among progressives, recent 18-29-year-old voters have increasingly favored Trump — leaving the outcome to hinge on turnout. Final certified results and precinct-level turnout data will show whether that generational split held on Election Day.

A key dynamic in the Maine contest was that 2026 was shaping up to be an anti-incumbent year, and Collins had been in office for nearly 30 years. Unlike in other races, Republicans focused their attacks on Jackson's finances, including taxes and the cost of living — a departure from the GOP's national message, which has centered on transgender children.