Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is claiming that a rogue supertanker has been stopped in its tracks and caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz after being struck by two naval mines along the waterway. The tanker is said to have been attempting to pass through the strait "illegally" along the southern passage.

The IRGC has also declared that "all ships must comply with its rules for passage through the Strait of Hormuz".

The development comes as little surprise, with tensions between the US and Iran heating up again since the weekend. As noted earlier, the episode is about sending a message.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most critical chokepoints for seaborne trade, with roughly a fifth of globally traded oil passing through it, so any sustained disruption to traffic there carries significance well beyond the immediate participants. Iran has long publicly cited its ability to close or impede passage through the strait as a strategic card, and incidents of this kind feed directly into shipping decisions — insurers and operators closely track risk premiums and rerouting options when the waterway becomes contested. Few practical alternatives exist for vessels in the region, as pipeline bypass capacity covers only a fraction of the volumes that move through the strait by tanker.

"You can bet that with tensions keeping high, Iran will also continue to make a showing of further disrupting traffic along the Strait of Hormuz. Even if already near a standstill, attacks on the waterway will go a long way in sending a message to the US and the world that they are still in control."

The most striking response Iran can go with is to make a show of attacking vessels along the strait, and it appears to be doing just that — even if the vessel in question supposedly ran into naval mines. Believe what you will.

As both sides continue this form of military exchange, it is further evidence supporting the case that tensions will not die down any time soon. Six months and counting now.