NewsCommodities & ForexOil Climbs Above $90 as Iran Rules Out US Diplomacy

Oil Climbs Above $90 as Iran Rules Out US Diplomacy

Author: City AM Markets·

Key Takeaways

  • US strikes on Iranian rocket launchers pushed Brent crude toward $91 a barrel.
  • The Strait of Hormuz remains a major flashpoint, and shipping through the waterway has been curtailed by security fears.
  • Iran’s foreign minister said diplomacy with the US could not be restored under pressure.
  • Goldman Sachs estimated Middle East crude and oil-product exports at 15m to 16m barrels a day, still below pre-conflict levels.
  • UK inflation rose to 2.9% in July, and Ofgem said the energy price cap will rise 4% to £1,723 for the final quarter of the year.
Oil Climbs Above $90 as Iran Rules Out US Diplomacy

Oil prices are pushing higher after the United States launched strikes on Iranian rocket launchers that were reportedly preparing to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow chokepoint that normally carries roughly a fifth of the world's oil supply.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, climbed towards $91 per barrel after the US strikes marked the first exchange of fire between the two sides in more than a month.

Speaking over the weekend, Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said: "Putting diplomacy back on track isn't possible.

"It hinges on the US understanding one simple fact: pressure doesn't work."

Achilleas Georgolopoulos, senior market analyst at Trading Point, said the fresh military operations were driving the oil price higher, but he added that the rally appeared to "lack [the] momentum" needed to push it above the previous highs seen during the conflict.

"While no one is surprised by these events, expectations for progress in the US-Oman-Iran negotiations have clearly taken another hit," he said, referring to the talks that had been the main channel for de-escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran.

Fighting around the Strait of Hormuz has continued to weigh on shipping volumes, with vessels steering clear of the narrow waterway while it remains dangerous.

According to analysis from Goldman Sachs, total exports of crude and oil products from the Middle East have risen to 15m to 16m barrels a day. That level remains up to 8m barrels below pre-conflict levels, but it is well above the 5m to 6m barrels flowing through each day in March, at the peak of the conflict.

High energy prices keep inflation fears elevated

The renewed pressure in the oil market comes after Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh indicated the central bank was prepared to act if inflationary pressures tick up, a signal that sustained energy costs could feed into monetary policy decisions.

"Here is my standard: We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do. That's our job… our mandate… and our charge to keep", Warsh said in his Jackson Hole speech on Friday, the annual gathering where Fed chairs have historically flagged shifts in policy thinking.

In the UK, inflation jumped to 2.9 per cent in July after the reset of the energy price cap coincided with a spike in oil and gas prices.

Energy watchdog Ofgem confirmed households face another squeeze on bills, with its price cap set to rise to a three-year high. The regulator said the default tariff for consumers across Britain would increase four per cent to £1,723 for the final quarter of the year — a rise of £60 per year, or £5 per month. It pointed to surging oil and gas prices resulting from the conflict in the Middle East.

The price cap, which acts as a buffer for some 22m British households on default tariffs and is reset every three months to reflect wholesale energy costs, is expected to rise again in January as oil prices remain elevated. The move will add pressure on Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who has sought to give families "breathing room" in the cost of living.