SUI, the native token of the Sui Layer 1 blockchain developed by Mysten Labs using the Move programming language, remained under pressure on July 29, trading near $0.68 as market participants evaluated the potential impact of the network's upcoming August token unlock. Token unlocks—scheduled releases of previously vested tokens that increase circulating supply—are closely watched events in crypto markets, as they can shift the balance between available supply and buyer demand. While concerns over increased supply have weighed on sentiment around SUI, official tokenomics data indicate the August release is considerably smaller than some market estimates have suggested.

Token Unlock Details

According to Sui's official token release schedule, at least 4.052 billion SUI was expected to be in circulation by July, with approximately 4.075 billion SUI projected by the end of August. This represents an increase of roughly 22.2 million SUI, valued at approximately $15.1 million at current market prices—amounting to nearly 0.55% of the existing circulating supply.

The timeline also includes a 13.72 million SUI cliff unlock on August 1. However, this event is not an additional release but rather forms part of the standard monthly supply increase. This clarification is significant because the scale of the August unlock has been overstated in market discussions, leading to unwarranted concerns about daily inflation. For context, unlocks that represent less than 1% of circulating supply are generally considered modest relative to larger monthly releases seen in other Layer 1 projects, some of which exceed 2–3% of supply in a single event.

While additional supply may exert some near-term influence on SUI's price, broader market sentiment is likely to remain the primary driver.

Technical Outlook

From a technical standpoint, SUI continues to face downward pressure. The token recently broke below the $0.77 range and is trading beneath both the 50-period EMA at $0.7289 and the 100-period EMA at $0.7569 on the 12-hour chart, signaling sustained seller dominance.

Trading volumes further support the bearish case, with higher volume observed during recent downward moves than during subsequent recovery attempts. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 33.49, placing the token near oversold territory. This may indicate easing selling pressure, though it does not necessarily signal a trend reversal.

Critical Support Zone

Immediate support is located near $0.676. A move above this range could pave the way toward $0.70 and $0.71, with a more substantial rebound toward the 50-period EMA potentially strengthening the case for a broader recovery. Conversely, if support fails, the next downside targets are $0.66 and $0.64.

Notably, SUI's price has declined in the period preceding the unlock, suggesting that broader market weakness and cautious investor sentiment continue to drive the token's performance. This pre-unlock weakness is a pattern observed across multiple token unlock events in the crypto sector, where traders often reposition ahead of known supply increases.

Outlook

As the August token unlock approaches, SUI's price may continue to be shaped by technical support levels and overall cryptocurrency market sentiment. While the planned supply increase is modest in scale relative to circulating supply, traders will be closely watching whether the token can defend its key support level and regain momentum in upcoming sessions. Beyond the unlock, market participants are also monitoring broader Layer 1 sector performance and any developments in the Sui ecosystem's DeFi and application activity, which can influence demand-side dynamics independent of supply changes.

Source: Tokenomist