Fox News analyst Stuart Varney warned the network's conservative audience on Thursday that President Donald Trump appears "worried" his agenda is in "real trouble," citing the president's intensive campaign schedule and a string of unfavorable polling as signs that the Republican congressional majority is "at stake" – if it has not been lost already. The warning arrives ahead of midterm elections in which every House seat and roughly one-third of Senate seats are on the ballot, and in which control of either chamber can determine whether a president's legislative agenda can advance.

"The president's doing a rally a day, sometimes two," Varney said. "He's been appearing in red states – that implies he's worried about the turnout."

Varney pointed to the geographic pattern of Trump's travel, which has concentrated on states and districts once considered safely Republican. The president has campaigned in firmly Republican-held Oklahoma and Alabama, as well as in surprise toss-up contests in Texas and Kansas, while he and the GOP devote progressively less time and fewer resources to states such as North Carolina. In Varney's view, the scheduling suggests Trump and his party recognize potential losses and are working to shore up support wherever they can.

"He's pulling out all the stops," Varney said. "He didn't get back from Montana until four o'clock this morning. He'll do several tele-rallies today. He'll be in Georgia tomorrow. The pressure is on."

Varney also flagged the network's own polling data. "Fox Power rankings suggest the House is very likely to go Democrat. The Senate is a toss-up," he said. "The latest Fox poll shows 54 percent prefer Democrat candidates, 45 percent Republicans, and the lead by the Democrats is widening. Worse, voters are very unhappy with inflation – increasingly unhappy. 77 percent disapprove of his policy, only 22 percent think's doing an OK job. That's a massive gap." The generic ballot figures he cited come from a standard poll question asking which party's House candidate voters plan to support, a measure long used as a barometer of national congressional preference.

His warning to Republicans came as a new Fox poll released Wednesday showed Trump's approval plunging to 36 percent – the lowest reading the network has recorded. That reading lands against a familiar historical backdrop: the party holding the White House has usually lost House seats in midterm elections, a pattern frequently cited in election coverage, though individual cycles have varied. In the survey, 60 percent of voters named the cost of living their top concern, and a majority predicted conditions would get worse. Majorities also disapproved of the president's handling of foreign policy and even immigration. According to the polling, Trump has lost ground among voters under age 45, those with annual household incomes below $50,000, non-White voters, and those without a college degree.

The same survey found that 7 in 10 voters say they will cast their ballots to send a message to Trump, with nearly twice as many expressing opposition (47 percent) as support (25 percent). Democrats not only lead on the generic House ballot but have expanded that lead over the past month. The poll also found Democrats ahead on 10 of 13 issue concerns, including healthcare, inflation, gas prices, election integrity, government corruption, artificial intelligence, and foreign policy, among other issues.

"The issue that helps explain the Democrats' advantage isn't an issue at all," Fox noted in its reporting. "By a 14-point margin, more voters think the Democrats will do a better job 'fighting for people like you.'"

Varney said the numbers explain why Trump is now campaigning on behalf of toss-up and struggling candidates in places he won handily two years ago. "This is intense politics, and so it should be," he concluded, in a warning to his fellow conservatives. "At stake is the Republican control of Congress. Lose it, and Trump's agenda is in real trouble." Whether that assessment proves accurate will be settled at the ballot box, where outcomes in the toss-up contests he highlighted will help determine the majority math in the next Congress.

Source: Alternet