Only seven vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz in the latest tracking data, down from 17 vessels on Wednesday and below the 10-day average of around 15 vessels, according to initial figures from Kpler.

The seven ships comprised two medium-range tankers, a class typically used for refined products; one very large gas carrier (VLGC), which hauls liquefied petroleum gas; one Ultramax vessel, a mid-size dry bulk class; one intermediate tanker; and two chemical tankers. Four of the vessels were seen exiting the strait, while the others were entering.

The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, is one of the world's most important chokepoints for seaborne oil and gas shipments. Around a fifth of the world's oil consumption, on the order of 20 million barrels a day of crude and refined products, and roughly a fifth of global liquefied natural gas trade, dominated by Qatari exports, normally move through it, according to figures from the US Energy Information Administration. Some volumes can bypass the chokepoint via Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline to Red Sea terminals and the UAE's line to Fujairah, which sits outside the strait, but that capacity covers only a fraction of Hormuz's normal throughput.

Despite continued talk and murmurs of a possible reopening of the strait, the numbers on the water continue to point to heavy disruption, the Investinglive analysis notes. The United States is still managing what it describes as backdoor efforts to get oil through the waterway and out of the region, but the longer the situation continues, the greater the chances of a more profound dislocation to the oil market, it adds.

Oil prices have been stabilizing around $80 to $90, and the commentary questions whether that can really remain the case if the disruption persists for another three to six months. Traders have historically judged risk around this chokepoint through a short list of gauges, including daily transit counts like Kpler's, freight rates for Gulf loading routes, and war-risk insurance premiums, which rose sharply during earlier flare-ups such as the tanker seizures of 2018 and 2019.

The US game plan "now looks to be to starve Iran out in an economic war," the analysis suggests. It also questions whether Washington really wants to engage on an economic warpath on multiple fronts at this juncture, noting that after decades of sanctions, Iran still has some fallback through relationships with the likes of Russia and China, which will make pressure difficult.

Trump said the whole ordeal was supposed to have ended in a matter of "weeks" back in March. Six months in, there is no end in sight, and the analysis argues that nobody is winning in this situation — not the US, not Iran, not the world.