How much oil is actually leaving the Persian Gulf has become one of the most contested questions in the energy industry—and the answer could help determine how long the Iran war lasts. The dispute centers on the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint between Iran and Oman through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil consumption normally passes.

Competing claims over Hormuz flows

Iran insists that the Strait of Hormuz is closed and that it controls the narrow waterway, which carried 20 million barrels of oil a day before the United States and Israel started the war. The Trump administration has pushed back on that account. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the U.S. military helped ship more than 15 million barrels of oil and products out of the strait on Tuesday, although the seven-day average is 8 million. Once oil exported through pipelines is included, the total leaving the region is closer to 20 million barrels, he posted on X on Friday. Those pipelines are the region's overland bypasses: Saudi Arabia's East-West line to Red Sea terminals and the United Arab Emirates' link to Fujairah, a port outside the strait on the Gulf of Oman.

Separately, U.S. officials told Axios that roughly 10 million barrels of oil a day are being transported out of the strait through a corridor the U.S. military established along Oman's coast. According to the report, a two-week stretch of U.S. bombing last month degraded Iran's radar and maritime surveillance systems, making it easier for tankers to sail through undetected at night with their transponders turned off. That has allowed vessels to make shuttle runs in and out of the Gulf, unloading their cargoes onto other tankers that then deliver the oil to customers. Ship-to-ship transfers of this kind, carried out in open water away from port infrastructure, have long been a fixture of sanctioned oil trade, though here the obstacle being slipped past is Iran's degraded coastal defenses rather than sanctions enforcers.

David Wech, chief economist at the energy intelligence firm Vortexa, told CNBC on Friday that flows have averaged 6 million to 7 million barrels a day over the past month. Peak volumes on a seven-day moving average, however, have come close to 10 million barrels, with the single highest day at 14 million.

Whichever estimate proves closer to the mark, the upshot is that significant volumes of oil are still getting out—and that the Strait of Hormuz is not really closed off at all. A supply deficit remains, forcing consuming countries to keep tapping reserves that are reaching critically low levels, and the U.S. naval blockade is still preventing Iran from exporting its own oil. Such emergency stockpiles are designed to bridge temporary outages—the role they played when the International Energy Agency coordinated releases after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine—rather than to replace output lost for months on end. But the barrels leaking out of the Gulf buy more time before global markets go off a cliff—and that could equally prolong the war, with both sides locked in a stalemate.

A war of “managed disruption”

“Barrels getting through raise the odds of a longer war, possibly deep into 2027: neither side feels urgency if oil does not materially move and Iran still earns enough to sustain the regime,” Dan Alamariu, chief geopolitical strategist at Alpine Macro, wrote in a note last week.

Diplomatic progress has stalled. Iran has put forward demands the United States considers unacceptable, while President Trump wants the regime to relinquish its grip on the strait—its main source of leverage. Trump, in turn, has shied away from resuming all-out war, especially with key munitions supplies low, and is instead relying on economic pressure.

Alamariu described the current equilibrium as a state of “managed disruption,” marked by a permeable Hormuz blockade, occasional military flare-ups, and escalatory threats. Sharp crises remain possible, he added, as Iran's economy continues to suffer and the regime comes under growing risk.

“And if the Strait is not fully closed, Iran's leverage is weak,” Alamariu pointed out. “Thus, Iran has reasons to escalate.”

The U.S. midterm elections in November, he warned, represent an opportunity for the Islamic Republic to hurt Trump by causing oil prices to spike and stirring more voter discontent against Republicans in Congress—steps that would risk U.S. retaliation and even greater escalation. Until the election, Trump could maintain the blockade and hope for the best as long as Brent crude—the global benchmark for oil prices—stays below $90-$100 per barrel, Alamariu wrote. If oil tops $105-$110, however, high gasoline prices and inflation could push the United States to try reopening the strait by force or destroying more of Iran's offensive capacity.

“These are not mechanical triggers, but they can make oil self-correct through violence,” he added.

Economic pressure read as weakness

Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, founder and CEO of the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation think tank, said Trump has erased the distinction between economic warfare and military conflict in the eyes of Iran's leadership. Tehran also interprets Trump's reliance on economic pressure as a strong signal that he does not have the stomach for renewed fighting, he said in a post on X.

“Iran's leaders are confident they can go on the offensive because they are interpreting the shift to economic pressure as a sign of weakness. They believe that if they can land a few more punches, Trump will end up down for the count and have to return to the promises made in the MOU,” Batmanghelidj wrote.