The United States and Iran refrained from military action for a third consecutive night as diplomatic efforts were reportedly given space to proceed. The pause follows a period of elevated military activity in which the U.S. carried out 13 consecutive nights of strikes against Iranian targets.

Those U.S. actions were intended to reduce Iran’s ability to threaten commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a strategically important maritime chokepoint linking the Persian Gulf with open sea routes through the Gulf of Oman. The current halt in hostilities is taking place alongside ongoing negotiations, although the broader dispute over the strait remains unresolved.

Prediction-market pricing for a possible U.S. announcement ending the Iranian blockade by July 31 has declined. The market is now priced at 11.5% YES, down from 22% one day earlier. A separate market on the blockade ending by August 31 remains higher, at 48.5% YES, though it has also fallen from 60%.

The pricing indicates that market participants are factoring in the diplomatic pause as a possible opening for a resolution, while continued uncertainty has kept expectations for a near-term outcome lower. The August 31 market continues to reflect a more moderate probability than the July 31 contract, despite the recent decline.

The developments are part of the continuing U.S.–Iran conflict centered on the Strait of Hormuz. Both countries have taken military actions aimed at each other’s capabilities in the region, where the strait’s importance to commercial shipping has made it a central point of tension. Because activity in the strait can affect shipping access and security planning across the Gulf region, traders are watching not only military activity but also the language used by governments to define whether the blockade is being enforced, eased, or ended.

The recent absence of military action is being viewed by some observers as an opportunity for talks to support a diplomatic settlement. However, the underlying dispute and recent history of hostilities continue to point to a complex and volatile situation.

Official statements from key figures, including U.S. President Donald Trump or Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, could affect how markets assess the situation. Confirmation of continued diplomatic talks or any agreement could strengthen expectations for a YES outcome, while renewed hostilities or a breakdown in negotiations could weigh on pricing. Decisions related to the enforcement or termination of the blockade remain key indicators for future market moves.