Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Futures Rise Ahead of Key Jobs Report
Key Takeaways
- •Economists expect the US economy added roughly 85,000 to 89,500 jobs in September, a slowdown from August's stronger-than-expected 127,000 payroll gain.
- •According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are pricing a 74% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its October 28 meeting.
- •The 10-year Treasury yield surged more than half a percentage point to 5.3% in September, the sharpest rise since September 2022, while the 30-year yield reached its highest level since June 2002.
- •Brent crude held steady around $102 per barrel as the Middle East conflict entered its eighth month, and the US sent an additional aircraft carrier with about 10,000 sailors and Marines to the Persian Gulf.
- •Deutsche Bank macro strategist Henry Allen said the September report is especially important because resilient data has supported US risk assets and given the Fed room to raise rates.
US stock futures moved higher on Friday morning as investors awaited the September jobs report, the most closely watched economic release of the week, due out later in the day.
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 (ES=F) rose between 0.3% and 0.4% in early trading, according to Barron's live markets coverage, while Nasdaq-100 futures gained between 0.6% and 0.7%. Futures readings like these offer an early indication of how investors are positioned before the opening bell, making them a useful barometer of sentiment heading into a major data release.
The employment data will show how many jobs the US economy added last month, and it is widely viewed as the main event of the week. Compiled by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, the monthly employment report also includes the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings, and it routinely triggers sharp market moves when the numbers cross the wire. The release carries added weight this time around because of what it could mean for the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates.
What Economists Expect From the September Jobs Report
Economists forecast that the US economy added roughly 85,000 to 89,500 jobs in September, which would mark a slowdown from August, when payrolls grew by 127,000. August's report had surprised forecasters by coming in stronger than expected, and that resilience helped stocks rally into the end of the week.
Earlier in the week, the Dow and the S&P 500 had both snapped three-day losing streaks, while the Nasdaq rose for a second straight session.
Traders are watching the jobs number closely because of what it means for the Federal Reserve. The central bank is scheduled to meet on October 28 to decide on interest rates. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in a 74% chance that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at that meeting. A weak jobs report could raise the odds of a pause, while a strong one could revive talk of a hike.
That sensitivity reflects the Fed's dual mandate, which covers both employment and price stability, placing labor market data squarely in the path of rate decisions.
Fed officials have said in recent days that they have time to study inflation data before making a move. They have also said that inflation remains too high for their liking.
Treasury Yields, Oil and the Middle East Conflict
Treasury yields were flat on Friday morning, but they have risen over the past month as traders adjusted their expectations for Fed policy. The 10-year yield in particular serves as a benchmark for borrowing costs across the economy, from mortgages to corporate debt, which is why its trajectory draws close attention. The scale of that move was highlighted by market commentary account Coin Bureau in an X post published on October 1, 2026:
🚨WARNING: US Treasuries just posted their WORST month in four years, per FT. The 10-year yield surged more than half a percentage point in to 5.3%, the sharpest rise since September 2022. The 30-year yield is trading at its highest level since June 2002. Investors… pic.twitter.com/FycpiaSeqb
Despite the rise in yields, most traders still expect at least one 25 basis point rate hike before the end of the year. That expectation has shifted in recent weeks as new data has come in.
Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, held steady at around $102 per barrel. Oil prices have been affected by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has now entered its eighth month.
President Trump said this week that he is considering resuming military action against Iran after the midterm elections. He also said he is looking for a resolution to the conflict around the same time. On Thursday, the US sent an additional aircraft carrier and about 10,000 sailors and Marines to the Persian Gulf, according to a Bloomberg report.
Deutsche Bank macro strategist Henry Allen said monthly jobs reports are always a macro highlight. He added that this particular report is an important one, because data resilience has supported US risk assets and given the Fed room to raise rates.
The jobs report is scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. Markets are expected to react quickly once the numbers are published, and the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings figures in the same release will round out the picture of the labor market alongside the headline payroll count.
This article is based on a report by CoinCentral.
