Stellar (XLM) is grinding through what technical analyst ChartNerd describes as a “bullish reset,” with price currently testing a multi-year ascending support line that has repeatedly marked major bottoms.

The long-term chart shows XLM sitting inside what appears to be the final leg of a corrective structure — labeled as wave 5 — following a series of higher lows along a blue ascending trendline that dates back years. That same trendline previously acted as a springboard in 2020, 2023, and 2024, and each time price tagged it and held, a meaningful expansion followed. That track record underpins the analyst's framing of the current decline as a reset within the larger structure rather than a breakdown.

The Setup: Sweep, Support and Historical Pattern

ChartNerd highlights several constructive elements in the current structure. XLM price has swept recent lows and is building what looks like a potential double-bottom formation near the rising support. Prior major corrections on this chart delivered drawdowns of 70%+ before the next expansion phase kicked in, underscoring why this area is drawing attention from traders watching long-term structure rather than just the latest swing.

In an August 15 post on X, ChartNerd laid out the framework:

$XLM 's bullish reset continues! Price is likely witnessing an EW5 reset back down to the blue multi-year ascending support line, currently inside wave 5. Prior POC's on this trendline marked bottoms in 2020, 2023, and 2024. Future macro FIB extensions (1.272) rest above at $2.40. pic.twitter.com/yRxhIKdKLd

— 🇬🇧 ChartNerd 📊 (@ChartNerdTA) August 15, 2026

The current correction is approaching the average duration of those earlier bear phases, adding a timing element to the technical case.

The blue ascending support remains the critical line. As long as it holds, the broader structure stays intact. A decisive break below it would weaken the bullish reset thesis and open the door to deeper downside. Conversely, a strong reaction off the trendline would reinforce the idea that sellers are exhausting themselves at a historically significant level.

The Upside Target: Macro Fibonacci Extension

Looking further out, ChartNerd points to a 1.272 Fibonacci extension that projects toward the $2.40–$2.45 region. That level sits well above the current XLM price and would represent a substantial multi-year move if the ascending support continues to hold and the next expansion phase materializes. ChartNerd situates the projection within the longer-term trendline framework rather than presenting it as an immediate price objective.

This is not a short-term call. The XLM chart frames the current action as a reset within a much larger structure rather than an immediate breakout setup, and the technical case still depends on whether the market can defend the same support that has mattered in prior cycles. Patience remains the operative word — the same patience that has been required through previous multi-year consolidations on this trendline.

What XLM Bulls Are Watching Near-Term

For now, the market is focused on whether XLM can stabilize and reclaim short-term structure after testing the long-term support. Volume confirmation and a shift in momentum would strengthen the case that the reset is complete. Until then, the ascending trendline remains the make-or-break level that defines the entire thesis.

Stellar's chart is telling a story of repeated tests and eventual expansion off the same rising support. Whether this latest visit produces the next leg higher will depend on whether buyers step in with the same conviction they have shown in prior cycles.