Ukrainian commanders reported this month that armed drones fell out of the sky after connections to Starshield, SpaceX's satellite communications service for government and military users, slowed in Ukraine. The disruption also exposed a strategic problem for Europe: it wants to reduce its dependence on American satellite services but does not yet have systems of its own capable of replacing them. The episode showed how satellite links have become core battlefield infrastructure — and what happens to units when that infrastructure is throttled.

When the drones fell from the sky

Oleh, one of the commanders, said in an interview with The New York Times that he watched numerous drones crash after their pilots lost contact with the aircraft. He said his unit lost more than $1 million and reduced operations for three days. Where aircraft depend on a live link to their pilots, the throttling translated directly into lost hardware and grounded missions.

Brig. Gen. Andriy Biletsky said drones that previously maintained connections at 250 mph now lose them above roughly 100 mph, impairing Ukraine's ability to intercept fast Russian attack drones.

It is unclear who ordered the restriction of Starshield access in Ukraine. President Donald Trump claimed he had nothing to do with the move. Secretary of State Marco Rubio insisted that SpaceX controls the access. President Volodymyr Zelensky, meanwhile, described what happened as a premeditated move. For Europe, the unresolved question of who ordered it points to the deeper vulnerability: reliance on a service that others can restrict.

A gap Europe cannot close quickly

Europe's nearest option is GOVSATCOM, which launched in January 2026 and integrates the existing satellite capacity of European countries. Full access to GOVSATCOM is not yet available to Ukraine. The EU decided in March to begin negotiations on Ukrainian participation, but issues involving sensitive military services remain unresolved. Secure commercial capacity is expected to join GOVSATCOM from 2027. The European Commission has said the system is not a direct replacement for Starlink, and it could not verify the reports of Starshield outages. Until those questions are settled, Ukrainian forces remain on networks whose access terms are set outside Kyiv's — and Brussels' — control.

IRIS² still years from orbit

Europe's long-term response is IRIS². Under an agreement reached in August, 348 satellites are to be built, with the first launches scheduled for 2029 and secure services to follow. Manufacturing is already beginning: Aerospacelab of Belgium has won a €2.4 billion contract to produce 264 low-earth orbit satellites. The schedule leaves a multi-year window in which dependence on Starshield persists on the battlefield.

Getting them into orbit is another difficulty altogether. Europe accounted for 8 of the 324 space launches worldwide in 2025, while the United States carried out 193. Grzegorz Brona, chief executive of Creotech Instruments, warned that Europe could find itself able to build thousands of satellites without adequate rockets to carry them — a reminder that sovereignty extends from satellite factories to launchpads.

The money problem behind the sovereignty pitch

Funding presents another obstacle. The European Space Agency reported a 60% surge in global private space investment in 2025, while European ventures raised €1.4 billion, down 8%. Europe would therefore be expanding its space ambitions against a private funding base that is contracting even as global capital pours in. SpaceX, meanwhile, continues to expand: on September 28, it deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites.

Four European telecom companies are exploring a joint spectrum bid that would leave the spacecraft to an outside partner. Under such an arrangement, Europe could retain control of ground operations while remaining dependent on another satellite provider.

The market still offers room for growth. Gartner expects the global direct-to-device market to reach $20.2 billion by 2030, and EUSPA projects nearly €1.2 billion in annual secure satellite communications revenues from EU users by 2040. Yet market demand alone cannot deliver independence. Europe still needs the investment and launch capacity to turn its satellite plans into working infrastructure. The benchmarks to watch are already on the calendar: the outcome of the GOVSATCOM negotiations with Ukraine, the arrival of secure commercial capacity in 2027, and the first IRIS² launches in 2029.