Stablecoin net flows over the past 30 days have turned positive for the first time since May, ending 113 consecutive days of net outflows and marking a shift after months of capital leaving exchanges. The metric tracks ERC-20 stablecoins moving to exchanges, and because stablecoins are the most common trading pair for crypto assets, on-chain analysts watch these flows as a proxy for how much dry powder is sitting on exchanges ready to deploy. However, on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. warns that the rebound is already losing momentum, while broader market signals remain neutral.

Stablecoin Net Inflows Improved, Then Cooled Fast

Net inflows turned positive on September 1, when the 30-day average of ERC-20 stablecoin flows to exchanges moved above zero. Net inflows totaled $13.85 million that day — the first positive reading in nearly four months. The magnitude matters: at $13.85 million, the initial positive reading was small relative to the scale of the preceding outflow streak, which spanned more than a third of a year.

The rebound weakened quickly, however. Net inflows fell from $13.85 million on September 1 to $6.85 million by September 3, a roughly 51% decline in two days.

The 113-day period of stablecoin outflows has ended. But positive netflow shrank by 51% in two days, while all three SSR oscillators remain above zero. Liquidity has stabilized. A return of demand has yet to be confirmed. Morning Brief #249 👇 pic.twitter.com/D4xDyRB0w7

— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) September 3, 2026

Bitcoin's Stablecoin Buying Power Is Improving, but Slowly

Another metric tracked by Adler, Bitcoin's Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR), points to a modest improvement in stablecoin buying power relative to Bitcoin, although the recovery remains limited. SSR compares Bitcoin's market value with the total supply of stablecoins and is used as a gauge of potential buying power — a lower SSR generally means stablecoins have more purchasing power relative to Bitcoin.

SSR fell from its August highs, suggesting stablecoins have regained some relative buying power. The ratio stood at 13.84 on September 1, while its 90-day, 200-day, and 365-day oscillators remained above zero at +0.215, +0.249, and +0.162, respectively. All three have declined from their August 26 peaks. The readings suggest that stablecoin buying power is improving but has not yet returned to its recent trend, Adler said.

"Exchange flows are no longer clearly negative, while SSR is retreating from its recent local high, but neither metric confirms a sustained expansion in liquidity yet," Adler said.

What Would Confirm a Liquidity Reversal?

According to Adler, a sustained liquidity reversal would require both an expansion in net inflows and a further decline in the SSR oscillators. If inflows continue to increase, the data would provide stronger evidence that liquidity is returning to exchanges — and, since positive stablecoin inflows signal capital potentially available to buy crypto assets, a durable recovery in these flows would strengthen the case that market liquidity is rebuilding after months of outflows. If exchange net flows turn negative again, however, the September shift could prove temporary, and the 113-day outflow streak could simply resume. That makes the coming weeks of flow data the key checkpoint for whether this is a turning point or a pause.