SpaceX (SPCX) Raises 2026 Capex Forecast as AI Compute Demand Surges
Key Takeaways
- •SpaceX posted third-quarter 2026 revenue of $14.58 billion, up 161% year over year, with earnings of $0.35 per share beating the $0.10 consensus estimate and adjusted EBITDA rising 306% to $8.8 billion.
- •The company guided fourth-quarter capital expenditures to $35 billion–$40 billion, up from $19.6 billion in the third quarter, to fund an AI compute expansion targeting at least 13 gigawatts of capacity by the end of 2027.
- •Starlink added 1.6 million subscribers to reach 13.6 million consumer users, while connectivity revenue increased 69% year over year to $5.2 billion.
- •Super Intelligence revenue reached $7.6 billion in the quarter, and management reaffirmed its $100 billion annual recurring revenue target for December 2026 while projecting first-quarter 2027 revenue of $33 billion–$37 billion.
- •Independent special committees are evaluating a potential combination between SpaceX and Tesla, though transaction terms remain unagreed and the deal structure is undetermined.

SpaceX (SPCX) shares climbed 3.45% to $141.08 after Space Exploration Technologies Corp. reported strong third-quarter 2026 financial results and raised its capital spending outlook to accelerate artificial intelligence infrastructure development. Alongside the earnings beat, management outlined expansion plans spanning compute capacity, Starlink services and Starship operations.
The company guided fourth-quarter capital expenditures to $35 billion–$40 billion to fund its AI compute expansion, said it targets at least 13 GW of computing capacity by the end of 2027, and posted quarterly revenue of $14.58 billion, up 161% year over year and ahead of analyst estimates. Starlink added 1.6 million subscribers during the quarter as connectivity revenue climbed 69%, and adjusted EBITDA rose 306% annually to $8.8 billion.
Q3 Results Beat Estimates
The company reported earnings of $0.35 per share, well above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.10. Revenue reached $14.58 billion, exceeding the $12.54 billion estimate and rising 161% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA climbed 306% to $8.8 billion as compute infrastructure and connectivity operations expanded.
Capital Spending Rises on Compute Demand
SpaceX expects fourth-quarter 2026 capital expenditures to reach between $35 billion and $40 billion, up from the $19.6 billion recorded in the third quarter — a guided range that exceeds the company's entire third-quarter revenue of $14.58 billion. Those funds are being directed toward compute infrastructure, Starship development and satellite production.
The increased spending supports the company's Super Intelligence (SI) infrastructure expansion. CEO Elon Musk expects nameplate compute capacity to reach 2.5 GW to 3 GW by December 2026, and the company is targeting at least 13 GW of capacity by the end of 2027, a target that implies at least a fourfold scale-up from the December 2026 level within roughly a year. Power availability, cooling systems and electrical infrastructure remain critical deployment requirements, and SpaceX is developing turbine components internally to ease power supply constraints. CFO Bret Johnsen also highlighted cloud demand and compute deployments carrying payback periods of less than one year.
Starship Milestones and Starlink Expansion
Musk identified Starship Flight 14 as a major milestone following the vehicle's first orbital flight, a mission that also deployed operational Starlink V3 satellites. President and COO Gwynne Shotwell outlined plans for Flight 15, during which SpaceX intends to attempt recovery of both vehicle stages. The company is also targeting its first second-stage reflight in early 2027, with recovery and reflight representing the next steps toward reusing the vehicle operationally.
Starlink continued to broaden its consumer and enterprise operations. The satellite internet service reached 13.6 million consumer subscribers after adding 1.6 million during the quarter, a net gain of more than 13% in the consumer base. Connectivity revenue increased 69% year over year to $5.2 billion, and monthly consumer average revenue per user reached $69.
SI Revenue and Growth Outlook
SpaceX generated $7.6 billion in SI revenue during the third quarter, reflecting expanding cloud agreements and contributions from the Cursor acquisition, which generated $608 million following its August closing. SI and Starlink connectivity revenue together accounted for roughly 88% of the quarter's $14.58 billion total. Shotwell also highlighted enterprise adoption of Grok Bot and its integration across Grok, Cursor and related applications.
Musk outlined plans to allocate compute capacity between internal operations and external customers, saying the company intends to balance both areas while prioritizing commercial opportunities.
Management reaffirmed its $100 billion annual recurring revenue target for December 2026. Johnsen projected first-quarter 2027 revenue between $33 billion and $37 billion — a range that would more than double the third-quarter total if realized — while noting that the company must balance infrastructure spending against operating cash flow and debt requirements.
Tesla Combination Discussions
SpaceX also addressed discussions surrounding a potential combination with Tesla. Musk confirmed that independent special committees are evaluating the proposal, although transaction terms remain unagreed, leaving the structure of any potential transaction undetermined for now. Management pointed to operating cash flows, investment-grade debt access and potential financing partnerships as available financial resources.
Source: Blockonomi