SpaceX shares face continued downward pressure after market commentator Crypto Patel reiterated his assessment that the company may experience a deeper post-IPO correction before building a stronger long-term foundation.

Following its debut at $135, SpaceX stock surged to an all-time high of $225.60 before pulling back to approximately $107 — a 52% drop from the peak. Crypto Patel noted that the recent price movement confirms his earlier caution that a substantial correction typically follows an initial post-IPO rally. The pullback comes as investors weigh the company's valuation against the realities of commercial space launch competition, satellite internet expansion through its Starlink division, and the capital-intensive development of its next-generation Starship program.

The decline is especially noteworthy given its timing, arriving just weeks after the company's public listing. At current levels, the stock trades roughly 46% below its record-high closing price of $201.80, reached on June 16. Market observers have cited multiple contributing factors, including post-IPO selling pressure and shifting sentiment toward growth-oriented technology equities.

SpaceX Stock Mirrors Historic Tech Declines

Crypto Patel highlighted that SpaceX shares are trending toward the $50–$70 range, which he identifies as a potential accumulation zone for long-term positioning. He argued that sharp corrections are common among major technology companies during their growth cycles, making such drawdowns an expected occurrence rather than an anomaly.

Drawing parallels with previous tech-sector declines, he pointed out that Amazon once fell 95%, Nvidia dropped 90%, Apple declined 82%, Tesla lost 75%, and Microsoft experienced a 70% pullback — all before eventually recovering.

Lock-Up Expiration Could Unlock $123 Billion in Shares

SpaceX is scheduled to report earnings on August 4. Just two trading days later, a major lock-up period will expire, making up to 911.5 million insider shares eligible for sale — valued at approximately $123 billion based on current price levels. By comparison, only about 629 million shares were publicly floated in the IPO. Lock-up periods, typically lasting 90 to 180 days after an IPO, are designed to prevent insiders from flooding the market immediately after listing; their expiration is a widely tracked event that can materially shift a stock's supply-demand balance.

SpaceX reports earnings on Aug. 4. Two trading days later, up to 911.5 million insider shares, worth roughly $123 billion at current prices, become eligible for sale. For comparison, only about 629 million shares were publicly floated in the IPO. The first lock-up expiration… — MagnoliaLab (@lovezihuatanejo) August 2, 2026

If all locked-up shares enter the market, SpaceX's total public float would rise to approximately 1.54 billion shares — an increase of roughly 145% over the original public float. While not all insider shares will necessarily be sold immediately upon expiration, the surge in available supply could surpass the total number of shares offered in the IPO. The back-to-back scheduling of earnings and lock-up expiry means investors will receive fresh financial data and face a structural supply shift within the same week, a combination that has historically amplified volatility in newly public companies.