SpaceX Share Lock-Up Ends August 6 as Stock Falls From IPO Highs

SPCX -1.36%

TSLA -1.22%

After falling about 30% since its shares began trading in June 2026, SpaceX (SPCX) stock could face another round of selling pressure. A lock-up period for pre-IPO shareholders is scheduled to expire on Aug. 6, only days after the company is set to release its first quarterly results as a public company.

About 911.5 million shares are expected to become eligible for sale, with an estimated value of roughly $116 billion. Additional shares could come into the market if certain performance milestones tied to SpaceX's post-IPO share price are reached. By the end of the year, liquidity in SpaceX may increase further, when as many as 5.3 billion shares could be available for trading.

The timing matters because lock-up expirations can change the supply of shares available to trade, especially in a newly public company where early investors and employees may finally gain the ability to sell. That does not determine the stock's direction, but it does add a new test for how the market absorbs supply so soon after the first earnings report.

A Look Back at Tesla

The end of SpaceX's lock-up period, and the stock's reaction afterward, cannot be predicted. Still, one historical comparison comes from CEO Elon Musk's other company, Tesla (TSLA).

Tesla went public at $17 per share on June 29, 2010. By November 2010, the stock had doubled to around $35. It then began to decline, and when the lock-up expired on Dec. 27, 2010, shares fell about 15%, with thin holiday trading volume amplifying the move. Investors who bought Tesla at that point were ultimately rewarded, with the stock delivering an almost 40% compound annual growth rate over the past 16 years.

Tesla at the time was essentially an automobile company, although it arguably still is by revenue contribution. SpaceX, by contrast, is now positioned as more than a space company. It has ambitions to build data centers in space, operates a broadband business through Starlink, offers a generative AI chatbot through xAI's Grok, and owns one of the world's largest social media platforms in X. If reports are accurate, Tesla may also be brought into the fold, adding electric vehicles and Optimus humanoid robots to the mix.

That gives SpaceX significant upside potential, though execution could take years or even decades. The company is also pursuing several large markets at once, which could make the eventual payoff larger than what Tesla has delivered so far.

SpaceX's Financials Are Decent, But Not Otherworldly

SpaceX has posted strong revenue growth in recent years, rising from $10.4 billion in 2023 to $18.7 billion in 2025. The company reported profit of $791 million in 2024 before moving to a loss of $4.9 billion in 2025.

Operating cash flow improved over the same period, increasing to $6.8 billion in 2025 from $4.5 billion in 2023. SpaceX ended 2025 with $24.7 billion in cash and very little short-term debt, which helped reduce liquidity concerns.

In the first quarter of 2026, revenue rose more than 15% year over year to $4.7 billion. Net losses widened to $4.3 billion from $528 million in the same quarter a year earlier. Operating cash flow for the period climbed to $1.05 billion from $727 million, while the company ended the quarter with $15.9 billion in cash reserves.

Capital spending has risen sharply over the past three years, increasing from $4.4 billion in 2023 to $20.7 billion in 2025. Spending tied to artificial intelligence has expanded particularly quickly, rising from $463 million in 2023, when it was the smallest category behind space and connectivity, to $12.7 billion in 2025, making it the company's largest area of investment. The shift suggests SpaceX is increasingly treating AI as a core element of its future strategy across multiple businesses.

In the first quarter of 2026, connectivity remained the largest revenue contributor, generating $3.3 billion of the company's $4.7 billion total. The AI segment contributed $818 million, while the space segment added $619 million.

Even after its recent decline, SPCX stock still trades at a rich valuation. SpaceX's price-to-sales ratio stands at 82.7 times, well above the sector median.

What Do Analysts Think of SPCX Stock?

Analysts currently rate SPCX stock a consensus "Moderate Buy." The average target price is $231.83, which implies 101% upside from current levels. Of the 33 analysts covering the stock, 22 rate it a "Strong Buy," two rate it a "Moderate Buy," eight rate it a "Hold," and one rates it a "Moderate Sell."

On the date of publication, Pathikrit Bose did not hold, directly or indirectly, any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. All information in this article is for informational purposes only. This article was originally published on Barchart.com