SpaceX stock fell in extended trading after the company released its first financial results as a publicly traded company. SPCX had gained during Tuesday’s regular session as traders positioned ahead of the report, but those advances reversed after SpaceX disclosed higher-than-expected capital spending and another quarterly loss.

The company’s first employee and early-investor lockup expiry is also drawing attention. Up to 911.5 million shares become eligible for sale on Aug. 6, a development that could increase the supply of SpaceX stock in the market and add another source of volatility as investors assess the results.

SpaceX Stock Falls After First Public Earnings

Elon Musk’s SpaceX stock is expected to be highly volatile as investors digest the company’s financial results. Data compiled by Barchart shows that options expiring later this week carry implied volatility of 206%, well above the historical volatility of 75%.

A review of volume and open interest indicates a put/call ratio of 0.51 and 0.30, respectively. While such data are not always definitive, they suggest that more traders have placed calls than puts, implying expectations for a potential upside move. The figures also indicate that some investors may be buying the dip after the stock fell by double digits from its all-time high.

Because this is SpaceX’s first earnings report as a publicly traded company, the stock could see a double-digit move in extended trading and in the next session.

Analysts remain constructive on the company, pointing to its strong positions in major industries including data centers, artificial intelligence (AI), satellite communications, and launch services. Its satellite launch business holds a large market share compared with companies such as Rocket Lab, while Starlink remains the industry leader in broadband.

SpaceX has also become a significant player in the data center industry, with large contracts from Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI. Reflection is reportedly paying $150 million a month, Anthropic is paying $1.2 billion, and Google is set to begin paying $925 million a month later this year.

One key challenge is Grok, the AI chatbot owned through xAI, which has a smaller market share than ChatGPT and Claude. SpaceX also faces growing competition from Chinese companies including Alibaba, Moonshot, and DeepSeek, which have reported strong models and are pressuring American rivals.

The upcoming employee lockup expiry may also affect trading as holders become able to sell shares, making the market’s reaction to the first earnings print especially important for near-term sentiment.

Analysts Expect Strong Results

Analysts following the company expect strong revenue growth. Yahoo Finance data show that the average estimate calls for second-quarter revenue of more than $6 billion, up from more than $4.6 billion in the first quarter.

Even so, analysts expect the company to report a loss of about $1.9 billion, or 29 cents a share, along with negative free cash flow.

Beyond earnings and guidance, SpaceX stock may also react to Elon Musk’s comments on the speculated merger between SpaceX and Tesla. Investors will also be watching guidance tied to its recent Cursor acquisition and revenue growth as competition intensifies.

Analysts remain bullish on SPCX. MarketBeat data show a consensus price estimate of $230, far above the current price, and one analyst sees the stock eventually rising to $800.

SPCX Stock Prediction: Technical Analysis

Technical indicators suggest the share price may be poised for a rebound after the earnings release. The stock formed a double-bottom pattern at $106.40, a setup that often precedes a bullish reversal.

It has also moved above the upper boundary of a descending channel that has connected the highest swings since June 30, and it has climbed above the 25-day exponential moving average.

If the pattern holds, bulls may target the next major resistance level at $150.

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