SpaceX shares, traded under the ticker SPCX, have fallen nearly 24% from their October peak as billions of previously restricted shares became eligible for sale. Market analyst Ali Charts reported the decline on November 1, noting that October alone saw roughly $307 billion in stock unlocked, with an even larger release scheduled for June 2027. The wave of unlocked supply has been cited by the analyst as a key factor behind the pullback.

The stock, which peaked at $176.42 on October 6, has since slipped to around $134.50 — a loss of roughly $42 per share in less than a month. It is now approaching a crucial support zone, and the analyst questioned whether SpaceX's current valuation is justified.

SpaceX is the aerospace company founded by Elon Musk, known for its Falcon and Starship rockets as well as the Starlink satellite internet service. Its launch business carries satellites and cargo for commercial and government customers, while Starlink sells internet connectivity to subscribers.

Unlock Schedule Adds Selling Pressure

Ali Charts laid out the trend in a five-part thread on X, tying the decline in SPCX to roughly $300 billion in unlocked stock. He pointed out that unlocks are continuing after October's heavy supply, with the schedule extending well into next year. In the second post of the thread, he wrote:

2/5 Billions of SpaceX shares are becoming eligible for sale. October alone saw nearly 2 billion $SPCX shares unlocked, representing roughly $307 billions in potential selling pressure. And more is coming. At today's share price, the June 2027 unlock could represent over $900… pic.twitter.com/Pl5KZB5lsJ

— Ali Charts (@alicharts) November 1, 2026

The full thread is available on Ali Charts' X account.

At today's share price, the June 2027 unlock could represent over $900 billion in stock becoming eligible for sale — a figure nearly three times October's total. The estimate depends on where SPCX trades when the unlock arrives, and the analyst described both figures as potential selling pressure rather than committed sales.

Ali Charts also explained how unlocks work. They do not create new shares; instead, they allow holders of SpaceX stock to sell shares that were previously restricted. The total number of shares outstanding stays the same. In other words, an unlock changes who is permitted to sell, not how many shares exist. Restrictions of this kind are a routine feature of public markets, where insiders, employees, and early investors are commonly barred from selling until scheduled windows open. What an unlock does change is the supply side of the market: shares that previously sat on the sidelines join the pool available to buyers, and whether that potential supply becomes actual selling is decided holder by holder.

The analyst tied this growing supply to the recent slide in SpaceX stock, which has shown consistent weakness since peaking earlier in October. He presented both the October total and the June 2027 estimate in the same thread.

SPCX Price Action and Valuation Metrics

The stock reached $176.42 on October 6 and has since fallen nearly 24% to around $134.50, a decline that has unfolded in less than a month. Ali Charts said SPCX is nearing a crucial support zone.

The analyst outlined a downside scenario should selling pressure continue. If SPCX breaks below the mid-range of its channel, the next major support sits at $108 — the level he is watching next. That level sits well below the stock's current price around $134.50. Between those levels and an unlock calendar that runs through next year before building toward the June 2027 release, the thread leaves a concrete set of dates and prices to track.

Beyond price action, the analyst framed the bigger question as whether SpaceX can justify its valuation. The company carries a market capitalization of $1.83 trillion against annual revenue of $32 billion, meaning the stock trades at roughly 57 times sales — $57 of market value for every $1 of annual revenue, at a size that places SpaceX among the most valuable companies in public markets.

The analyst calculated the revenue SpaceX would need to justify the same market capitalization at lower multiples. At 30 times sales, annual revenue would need to reach $61 billion. At 20 times, it would need $91.5 billion, and at 10 times, $183 billion — nearly six times current annual revenue. Put simply, lower multiples require far more revenue at the same market cap.

Ali Charts concluded that SpaceX has a compelling growth story, but investors are paying a substantial premium for its future.