Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) opened at $151.21 on Friday, below the analyst consensus price target of $221.06, as the company prepares for a significant increase in its Nasdaq 100 weighting later this month.

Pro forma data from Nasdaq’s Global Index Watch, released late Friday, indicates that SpaceX’s weighting could rise from roughly 1.28% to about 2.82% in the upcoming index rebalance. Nasdaq is expected to confirm the final weighting later in September.

The adjustment could lead to billions of dollars in additional SPCX purchases by passive funds and exchange-traded funds that track the Nasdaq 100. The Invesco QQQ Trust, which tracks the index, holds approximately $481 billion in assets. In total, about $1.7 trillion was tied to Nasdaq 100-tracking investments at the end of the second quarter.

Passive funds are required to adjust their holdings to reflect changes in the index. As a result, the increased weighting is expected to create additional demand for SPCX shares when the rebalance takes effect. The practical factors to watch are Nasdaq’s final weighting announcement, the timing of the rebalance, and how further changes in SpaceX’s public float affect later index reviews.

SpaceX was added to the Nasdaq 100 in July, but its initial weighting was limited because a large portion of its shares remained locked up and unavailable for public trading. Nasdaq had modified its rules to allow newly listed large-cap companies to enter the index sooner, although SpaceX’s restricted free float capped its weighting from the outset.

As lockup periods have expired, more SpaceX shares have become available for trading. The increase in the public float is now contributing to the higher index weighting. Additional lockup expirations are scheduled and could affect the company’s weighting in future rebalances.

SpaceX’s first lockup expiration occurred in August, at the same time as its first earnings release as a public company. Although there were concerns that a large number of newly tradable shares could pressure the stock, the anticipated selloff did not occur. Insiders largely retained their positions through a second lockup expiration one week later.

Institutional Buying and Trading Data

Baird Financial Group acquired a new position of 78,590 SPCX shares during the second quarter, valued at approximately $13.4 million. Several smaller institutional investors also established new positions during the period, including Syntax Research, Atwood & Palmer, and Marquette Asset Management.

SPCX has a 12-month low of $104.83 and a 12-month high of $225.64. Its 50-day moving average is $134.79, while its market capitalization is approximately $1.98 trillion.

Earnings and AI-Computing Agreement

SpaceX reported second-quarter earnings on August 4, recording revenue of $7.81 billion, a 91.9% increase from the same period a year earlier. The company reported a loss of $0.09 per share, exceeding the consensus expectation of a $0.26 loss by $0.17. Analysts currently forecast full-year earnings per share of -$0.15.

Goldman Sachs reaffirmed a Buy rating and a $220 price target, citing potential growth related to AI, Starship, and Starlink. Guggenheim and Argus also initiated or upgraded coverage to Buy ratings in recent weeks.

A 319-million-share lockup release has introduced additional potential selling pressure. Some analysts have also identified SpaceX’s valuation, at approximately 98 times sales, as a risk factor.

SpaceX Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen disclosed a new AI-computing agreement valued at approximately $1.11 billion per month, with revenue scheduled to begin December 1.

Source: CoinCentral