SpaceX's post-IPO lockup schedule puts the market to a supply test on October 9, when up to 328.4 million shares become eligible for sale. The expiration gives certain employees and early investors the opportunity to sell shares that were previously subject to trading restrictions following the company's initial public offering. Such restrictions are a standard feature of IPO structures: they keep insiders from selling into the market during a company's first stretch as a public stock, while the shares establish a trading record. The October 9 expiration arrives roughly four months after SpaceX's June 12 debut, when that window begins to close.

That does not mean the stock has to fall. Eligibility to sell does not guarantee that every holder will sell. Some may take profits, others may sell only a portion of their holdings, and some may continue to hold. The unlock itself does not create new shares; it simply makes existing shares potentially available for trading, where they can add to the float—the supply of stock the public can freely buy and sell—once holders choose to act.

The size of the release still deserves attention. SpaceX's 65-day average daily trading volume is approximately 92.3 million shares, meaning the maximum release represents roughly 3.6 times that daily turnover. That is meaningful potential supply, though it should not be read as 3.6 days of guaranteed selling. The key question is how much selling actually emerges—and whether buyers can absorb it.

More potential supply lies ahead. Another 328.4 million-share tranche is scheduled to become eligible on October 24, which falls on a Saturday, making October 26 the next regular trading session. In addition, a larger tranche of up to 1.3 billion shares could become eligible on the second full trading day after third-quarter results—approximately four times the size of the current release. The staggered schedule is typical of IPO lockups, which often release insider shares in tranches rather than all at once.

Against that backdrop, the analysis argues that technical levels are particularly useful. The calendar indicates when holders can sell; price action helps indicate whether sellers are taking control.

The technical picture

Since SpaceX's June 12 debut, the stock initially moved sharply higher. From the $135 IPO price, the first four trading days carried the price to $225.64, a gain of 67.1%. The gains did not last: the price fell toward $147 by June 23 before bouncing to $172.40 on June 30. Selling then resumed, taking the stock to its August 3 low at $104.83. That low was retested on August 6 before buyers began the climb back higher.

Since August 6, the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages have served as a roadmap, with the price generally holding above at least one of the two. The exceptions were brief: on September 28 and October 1, the price slipped marginally below both, but each break lasted only a single hourly bar. Sellers had their chance and could not sustain the breaks.

The moving averages currently stand at $155.96 for the 100-hour and $152.09 for the 200-hour. Those are key downside levels. According to the analysis, a move below the 100-hour moving average would be a warning for buyers, while a break below the 200-hour moving average—and a sustained hold below both—would shift the technical bias more firmly toward sellers. For traders and investors, those levels are central to the stock's technical health.

The midpoint as the nearby barometer

On the topside, the recovery reached $176.42 on Tuesday before the price rotated lower over the following two sessions, with the prior session's low touching $160. That decline pushed the price back below the 50% midpoint of the stock's entire trading range, at approximately $165.24—a level that now serves as a nearby barometer.

If buyers can push back above $165.24 and stay above it, the outlook improves. The next upside targets would be $172.40, the June 30 corrective high, and $176.42, this week's high. If the price cannot reclaim the midpoint with momentum, sellers may find added incentive to press lower, particularly with the lockup expiration increasing the potential supply available for sale.

Sellers, however, still have work to do. A failure at the midpoint would keep corrective pressure in place, while breaking and holding below the hourly moving averages would constitute stronger evidence that control is shifting.

What to watch

It remains unknown what holders of pre-IPO or IPO shares will do. What can be observed is how the price reacts to any increase in volume at the key technical levels. If volume picks up and support holds, with the price moving higher, that would suggest buyers are absorbing the selling. If volume rises, support breaks and the price stays below, the bearish implications become more compelling. Volume alone cannot identify how much selling comes from newly unlocked holders.

An unlock does not automatically mean a decline, but the potential supply should not be ignored either. Find the levels, define the risk, and watch whether any breaks can be sustained. For SpaceX, $165.24 is the nearby upside hurdle, while $155.96 and $152.09 are the key downside support levels. Buyers retain the advantage above the hourly moving averages; sellers need to break them—and keep them broken—to take firmer control.

Source: ForexLive via investinglive.com