Data analyst says Democrats could gain ground in the South in 2026 midterms
Key Takeaways
- •CNN analyst Harry Enten identifies a structural political realignment in Southern states that could make the 2026 midterms historically competitive for Democrats.
- •Democratic candidates currently lead in Senate races across four Southern states—Georgia, North Carolina, Texas, and Virginia—which would double their best midterm performance in the former Confederacy this century.
- •White college-educated voters are the primary demographic driving the shift, with Republican margins among this group narrowing dramatically since 2016 in North Carolina, Texas, and Georgia.
- •Enten's data shows Republican odds of maintaining Senate control have declined from 56 percent to approximately 51 percent over the past month.
CNN data analyst Harry Enten said President Donald Trump is now losing to a new "Southern Strategy."
For generations, many white Southern voters supported Democrats. But after the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Voting Rights Act of 1965, many opposed the national Democratic Party's new direction. Republican candidates, especially Barry Goldwater and Richard Nixon, sought the support of those voters through what became known as the "Southern Strategy."
Campaign language shifted away from explicit references to segregation and toward issues such as "states' rights" and "law and order." Over the following decades, the strategy helped turn much of the South from a Democratic stronghold into a Republican one.
New data, however, suggests that support for the parties may be shifting again ahead of the 2026 midterms — the first midterm cycle of Trump's second term. Historically, the president's party tends to lose ground in midterm elections, but Enten's analysis points to a more structural realignment that could make Southern races unexpectedly competitive.
Democratic candidates are pulling ahead in Southern states, including Texas' James Talarico, Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.), and Gov. Roy Cooper (D-N.C.). Ossoff is defending a seat Democrats narrowly won in a 2021 runoff, while Cooper, who is term-limited as governor, has been a rare Democrat holding statewide office in a state Trump carried. Enten said the potential Democratic gains could be "potentially historic."
"The most wins in a year in the former Confederacy, in a midterm, is two," said Enten.
"So, in the 2000s midterm Senate races, we're looking at something historic potentially here. They're up right now in four states, the most wins in a year in the former Confederacy, in a midterm, in 2000, this century is only two. They could potentially win double the amount of races than they have in any midterm cycle this entire century in the southern United States, when you add together Georgia, North Carolina, Texas, and the great Commonwealth of Virginia," said Enten.
Co-host Sidner asked which group is helping push these candidates over the top. Enten said the gains are coming from white college voters — a demographic that has trended toward Democrats nationally since 2016 but whose impact is now showing up in states long considered reliably Republican.
He said there has been a major demographic shift over the past 10 years and pointed to 2016 polling that showed how much ground Republicans had lost in each state.
Among white college voters, North Carolina shifted from Republicans up by 19 points to Democrats up by 13. Texas shifted from Republicans up 31 points to Republicans up only 1 percent. In Georgia, Republicans were up 41 percent, and this election they hold just a 13-point lead.
"The odds are moving in the Democrats' direction. Republicans were 56 percent chance a month ago. Now it's basically dead," said Enten. "Even 51 percent chance to 49 percent chance. So Democrats are very much in the game because of these southern races."
