Solana entered October near $121 after gaining 14.6% in September. A sustained break above the $124–$125 resistance zone remains the key technical condition for extending the recovery toward $148.

According to CoinGecko, $SOL traded at approximately $121.27 on Oct. 4, up about 1.6% over 24 hours but down 2.5% over seven days. Its market capitalization was near $71.3 billion, while 24-hour trading volume stood at approximately $1.7 billion.

The latest move follows two strong months. Historical price data show that $SOL gained around 41.5% in August before advancing another 14.6% in September. September opened near $103 and ended around $118, with the token moving above $124 late in the month.

October's setup also extends beyond chart levels: weekly ETF flow figures and the progress of Solana's Alpenglow upgrade give the market two non-price developments to weigh alongside the technicals.

Solana must clear $124–$125 before targeting $148

October began with $SOL recovering from the $117–$119 area, but buyers have not yet cleared the late-September high. CoinGecko places the recent seven-day range between $116.44 and $124.27, leaving both levels relevant as the market assesses the next move.

The immediate resistance zone is approximately $124–$125. $SOL closed at $122.08 on Sept. 25 and later traded above $124 intraday before retreating toward $118 at the end of the month.

As crypto.news reported in its late-September Solana analysis, $SOL reached approximately $124.62 before the rally stalled. That analysis identified $117 as immediate support, followed by $116.32 and $112.50 if selling intensified.

SOL has since recovered above $120, but a move through $124–$125 has not been confirmed. A daily close above the resistance range, followed by continued support at those levels, would strengthen the technical case for another advance.

The $148 target comes from a separate technical setup shared by trader Daan Crypto Trades. His chart identified $117 as the level $SOL needed to hold before targeting $148. Because $SOL has remained above that area for now, the target remains technically possible, although the $124–$125 resistance must first be cleared.

$SOL Flipped the $117 resistance. Targeting $148 next if this level holds. Not the quickest mover, other coins will move faster. But chart has been pretty straight forward and respecting levels well. Drawdowns have been pretty minimal so easier hold. pic.twitter.com/ev36nqiPCd — Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) September 29, 2026

$SOL Flipped the $117 resistance. Targeting $148 next if this level holds. Not the quickest mover, other coins will move faster. But chart has been pretty straight forward and respecting levels well. Drawdowns have been pretty minimal so easier hold. pic.twitter.com/ev36nqiPCd

From the current price near $121, a move to $148 would require an advance of roughly 22%. From $125, the increase would be closer to 18%.

The monthly chart supplied for the analysis shows the relative strength index at 50.70, above its moving average of 46.61. The RSI's move back above 50 indicates that momentum has improved from earlier weakness, although the reading remains neutral and well below the 70 level generally associated with overbought conditions.

The moving average convergence/divergence indicator remains below zero. The MACD line is near -8.82, compared with a signal line around -5.34, leaving the histogram close to -3.48. The negative reading indicates that longer-term bearish momentum has not fully disappeared, while the narrowing histogram suggests that downward momentum has eased.

The one-year chart places the 50-day moving average near $104 and the 200-day moving average around $97 as of early October. Both averages are below the current market price. The nearer chart levels at $117 and $109 would provide earlier tests if $SOL turns lower.

Solana ETF buying slowed sharply entering October

Institutional demand remains part of the October market picture, but the latest exchange-traded fund data are substantially weaker than those from the previous week.

Farside Investors shows that U.S. Solana ETFs recorded only $800,000 in combined net inflows from Sept. 28 through Oct. 2. The products attracted $7.7 million on Sept. 28 and $5.4 million the following day, before recording $12.5 million in outflows on Sept. 30.

A further $1.1 million left the products on Oct. 1, followed by $1.3 million in inflows on Oct. 2. Across the five sessions, the group was almost flat for the week.

Weekly flow totals are watched closely because ETF creations and redemptions are matched by corresponding purchases or sales of the underlying asset, making them one of the more direct gauges of institutional positioning in spot markets.

The slowdown is notable compared with the previous trading week. From Sept. 21 through Sept. 25, Solana ETFs attracted approximately $188.1 million, including $86.7 million on Sept. 25 alone.

As crypto.news reported in its latest ETF-flow review, the $800,000 weekly intake represented a sharp decline from the $188.1 million recorded during the preceding week.

Cumulative flows remain considerably larger. Farside data put total Solana ETF flows at approximately $1.6 billion, including seed capital shown separately in the fund table. Bitwise's BSOL accounts for the largest share of net inflows.

The fresh October figures therefore provide a more immediate view of institutional demand than the cumulative total. A return to persistent inflows would offer a clearer demand signal, while another period of flat or negative sessions would leave $SOL more dependent on spot-market buying.

Alpenglow remains a key October development

Solana's Alpenglow upgrade is another major network development being monitored during October.

The Solana Foundation describes Alpenglow as a replacement for the current TowerBFT consensus system. The upgrade has a target of reducing finality from roughly 12.8 seconds to around 150 milliseconds. Finality refers to the point at which a transaction becomes irreversible, and shorter finality windows are generally relevant for payments and trading applications, where confirmation speed affects usability.

Its first stage, Votor, replaces validator vote transactions with direct validator communication and aggregate certificates. Solana says the system can finalize blocks through a fast path when at least 80% of stake votes in the first round, with a fallback process using 60% thresholds.

As crypto.news reported in September, Alpenglow reached Solana's devnet and testnet as developers and validators began testing the consensus change ahead of a possible mainnet deployment.

No confirmed mainnet activation date has been announced. Solana's official upgrade documentation states that there is "no fixed activation time" and that each cluster migrates according to its own schedule. The network also exposes an RPC method that can show whether Alpenglow consensus has started on a particular cluster.

The 150-millisecond figure should therefore be treated as a target rather than a live measurement of mainnet performance. Solana says actual finality depends on network conditions, validator distribution, and whether a block completes through the one-round or two-round path.

Solana has already completed other performance-related changes. The Foundation reported in September that target slot times had fallen to 250 milliseconds on mainnet, while Transaction V1 and lower storage costs had advanced separately.

Tokenized assets add another October development

Institutional tokenization provides another Solana-related development to track during October, although current initiatives do not guarantee demand for $SOL.

On Sept. 17, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission granted temporary conditional relief allowing qualifying Tokenized Securities Venues to trade tokenized U.S.-listed stocks through permissioned automated market makers and liquidity pools.

The exemption runs for five years under specified conditions. Eligible tokenized stocks must retain the economic, voting, and dividend rights attached to the traditional shares.

The SEC order does not select Solana or require tokenized securities to use a particular blockchain.

Solana nevertheless has existing projects focused on institutional tokenization. The Solana Foundation announced Project Harmonia in September, connecting Allfunds' fund distribution network with tokenized funds on Solana.

According to the Foundation, Allfunds had approximately €1.9 trillion in assets under administration as of June 30. Applications for Project Harmonia remain open until Oct. 24, with the first cohort targeted for Q4 2026 and Q1 2027. The application deadline is the nearest scheduled checkpoint for gauging institutional participation in the program.

The Foundation also says that Solana already hosts more than $4 billion of institutional real-world assets onchain. That figure comes from the project's own ecosystem announcement and is not a forecast of future $SOL demand.

In related coverage, crypto.news reported on Backpack's tokenized-stock plans after CEO Armani Ferrante said the company wanted to expand access from roughly 200 stock symbols toward 10,000 through Solana. No launch date for the full target was provided.

Solana's October outlook has three main technical paths

October's technical structure remains centered on support at $117 and $109, with resistance around $124–$125.

The bullish scenario requires more than a brief move above $124. $SOL would need to close above the resistance region and continue trading above it. A confirmed breakout could reopen the $130 area before attention shifts toward $140 and the chart target at $148.

CoinGecko's current prediction-market display shows $130 with higher implied odds than $140. Prediction-market prices change continuously and are not technical forecasts.

The neutral scenario would keep $SOL between $109 and $125. The token could continue building support after two months of gains while buyers and sellers compete around the September highs.

A breakdown below $109 would weaken the recovery structure. The next chart level is around $95, close to the mid-September low near $96.87 recorded by CoinGecko.

Below $95, the supplied chart places another support region near $85. Reaching that area would represent a substantially deeper retracement and would place $SOL closer to the moving averages that supported the summer recovery.

Historical October performance provides limited guidance. The Binance monthly candles supplied for the analysis show three positive Octobers and three negative Octobers between 2020 and 2025. $SOL gained 79.7% in October 2023 but lost 46.5% in October 2020, leaving the sample too mixed to establish a reliable seasonal pattern.

With no Alpenglow activation date announced, the most checkable October markers outside the chart are the daily ETF flow prints and $SOL's behavior around the $124–$125 resistance zone.

Solana price prediction FAQs

Can Solana reach $148 in October?

$SOL could reach $148 if it holds support and breaks decisively through $124–$125. The $148 level comes from a technical setup that depends on the former $117 resistance continuing to act as support. It remains a conditional target, not a guaranteed forecast.

What is Solana's biggest resistance in October?

The main resistance is around $124–$125. $SOL reached approximately $124.62 in late September before falling back, while CoinGecko's current seven-day high is near $124.27.

Which support levels should Solana traders watch?

The immediate support area is around $117. The broader structure places another important level near $109. A loss of $109 would bring $95 into focus, while $85 remains a deeper downside area on the supplied chart.

Is Alpenglow already live on Solana mainnet?

No confirmed mainnet activation has been announced The upgrade has moved through testing networks, while Solana's official documentation says cluster activation does not occur at one predetermined time.

Are Solana ETFs still seeing strong demand?

Demand slowed sharply during the latest week. U.S. Solana ETFs attracted approximately $800,000 from Sept. 28 through Oct. 2, after recording $188.1 million during the previous week.

Source: https://cryptonews.net/news/analytics/33536825/