Solana (SOL) is trading near $101.56 on the Oct. 15 Coinbase daily chart, down about 2.5% on the day, after another wave of selling pushed the token below its rising channel and through the $105 area. SOL opened the session near $104.18, reached $104.75, and fell as low as $100.43, leaving the asset roughly 15% below its late-September high above $120. The question now is whether buyers can defend the psychologically important $100 mark.

The decline coincided with a broad leverage flush that liquidated roughly $959 million in cryptocurrency positions over 24 hours — most of them longs — and with an eighth consecutive session of outflows from U.S. spot Solana ETFs. Together, forced selling from unwinding leverage and a stretch of ETF withdrawals form the backdrop for the test of $100.

Analyst Points to Deeper Retracement

Analyst Jesse Olson said on X that SOL "just hit target 2 of 4 so far" in his retracement setup, citing several reasons the price could still reach the yellow box on his chart and asking where the bottom will be.

RETRACEMENT: $SOL just hit target 2 of 4 so far. ✅ Several reasons why we'll see the yellow box get hit. Where will the bottom be? pic.twitter.com/SgASUpdq7d

— Jesse Olson (@JesseOlson) October 15, 2026

https://x.com/JesseOlson/status/2110589231206949144?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Chart Picture: Momentum Weak, $100 in Focus

Solana had traded inside a rising channel since the August lows, but price has now broken below the lower boundary and slipped under the former $105-$110 support zone, placing the $100 level squarely in focus.

Momentum is fading. The daily RSI reads 34.61, close to the oversold line at 30 — a threshold conventionally used to flag when a move may be stretched — while the MACD line sits near -1.46, below its signal line near 0.87, and the histogram is around -2.32. A break of $100 would put the next support near $90.41, where the longer-term moving average sits, the kind of widely tracked technical level traders often use as a reference point in trend analysis. If buyers hold $100, the next levels to watch are a move back toward $105, followed by the $108-$110 zone.

ETF Outflows Stretch to Eighth Session

U.S. spot Solana ETFs recorded about $1.29 million in net outflows on Oct. 14, an eighth straight trading session of withdrawals. The latest redemption came entirely from Bitwise's BSOL fund. Flows into spot ETFs are tracked as a near-real-time gauge of institutional demand for the underlying asset, which is why the shift from steady accumulation to a withdrawal streak has drawn attention even at modest dollar amounts.

The funds have shed roughly $10.3 million over the past five sessions, following a $24.8 million outflow in the week Oct.9. That week ended a 14-week run of inflows and was the largest weekly withdrawal since the products launched. Despite the recent pullback, cumulative net inflows remain about $1.58 billion, and net assets stand at around $1.66 billion — totals indicating the pullback has so far trimmed, rather than reversed, the products' asset gathering.

Long Liquidations Accelerate the Sell-Off

About $959.43 million in positions were liquidated across the market over 24 hours, with $879.71 million of that total in longs. In the last four hours alone, traders lost approximately $521.99 million, including $490.56 million in long positions. Forced closures of long positions add sell orders to the order book and can accelerate a decline — a dynamic that helps explain how a single session can produce a liquidation total approaching $1 billion across the market.

On-Chain Activity Stays Elevated

Network usage remains high despite the price weakness. DefiLlama shows about $5.97 billion in DeFi total value locked (TVL), 3.02 million active addresses and more than 114 million transactions over 24 hours, with daily DEX volume near $2.1 billion.

Some measures have softened, however. Seven-day DEX volume is down about 11%, perpetual-futures activity has dropped more sharply, and stablecoin supply sits near $15.8 billion, about 2.3% lower over seven days. Read together, the figures indicate usage has not fallen in step with price, even as the softer seven-day numbers show activity cooling at the margins.

Alpenglow Upgrade and Samsung Wallet Integration Ahead

The Alpenglow upgrade is scheduled to activate on Solana mainnet on Oct. 21, starting with epoch 1064. The protocol overhaul targets about 150-millisecond finality, down from roughly 12.8 seconds, and the network also plans to cut slot times from 250 to 200 milliseconds.

Separately, Samsung Wallet users in the U.S. are expected to be able to make cross-border USDC transfers over Solana starting in the last week of October. The integration could reach 82 million Galaxy devices. With both milestones dated — Alpenglow on Oct. 21 and the Samsung rollout in the final week of October — the sessions around the $100 test come with a defined set of observable, non-price developments to track.

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This article is based on reporting from CoinCentral.