Solana (SOL) registered its first daily close below its 200-day simple moving average since August on November 8, confirming a breakdown that a Coindoo analysis had flagged three days earlier. The rebound that followed stalled about 60 cents short of the moving average, the session's low stopped roughly 42 cents above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, and momentum on the 14-day RSI still sits above its October 30 reading.

A flagged breakdown that played out

Coindoo's November 6 analysis warned that the $89 support had a short shelf life: the 200-day SMA there was edging higher while the channel floor beneath it kept sinking. A descending channel like this frames price between two downward-sloping parallel rails, with the lower boundary acting as support only for as long as it holds. On the Binance daily chart at 16:54 UTC on November 9, SOL trades at $87, up 0.53% on the day.

The warning played out. The rail slid away, the 200-day was left without backup, and the November 8 candle went through it. Now the same setup is forming one level lower, where the falling rail is closing in on the 0.618 retracement near $84.7.

How the $89 base gave way

The November 6 bounce from $88.94 never got far. It topped out near $91, short of the 0.500 retracement near $92.37, and SOL drifted back toward $89 over the next session while the channel's lower rail sank to around $87 underneath it.

On November 8, a full red candle opened near the 200-day SMA and closed at $86.54. It was SOL's first daily close below the average since the August breakout, and it landed right around the channel floor.

The 200-day turns into a ceiling

Today's session opened at $86.54 and bounced to $88.46, 60 cents under the 200-day at $89, before sellers turned it back. The drop that followed pushed through the channel's lower rail to $85.14, 42 cents above the 0.618, and SOL has since recovered to $87.00. About 1.64 million SOL had traded with seven hours left in the session, a faster pace than November 6, which logged roughly 743,000 SOL at its halfway point.

The 200-day had served as a floor since August. On its first retest from below, buyers could not even reach it. The average is among the most widely tracked long-term trend benchmarks in technical analysis, and sustained daily closes on either side of it are commonly read as a gauge of whether a larger uptrend remains intact.

The same clock, one floor lower

The lower rail falls by roughly 77 cents a day, and on its current slope it would cross the 0.618 near $84.7 around November 11. For a session or two, a falling channel floor and a horizontal Fibonacci level would share the same price, just as the rail and the 200-day did at $89. After that, the rail would slip below the 0.618 and the overlap would end.

The 0.618 capped July and August trading until the August breakout, and SOL has not traded below it since. Retracement levels of this kind are ratios projected from a prior price swing that traders use to judge how deep a pullback may run; in this move, the 0.618 sits between the 0.500 near $92.37 and the 0.786 near $73.8.

Momentum still has a thin divergence

The 14-day RSI has dropped to 28.10, below the 30 oversold line and under its signal line at 30.89. It never crossed back over the signal during the November 6–7 pause.

The October 30 low, set the day after the record Binance hack, remains the momentum reference. Today's low sits more than $7 under that day's low, yet the RSI is 0.55 points above that day's reading, so a bullish divergence survives for now. A close that drags the RSI under 27.55 would erase it.

The case for a bounce, and its ceiling

The bearish read has a weak spot. Price has met the 0.618 for the first time since August with an oversold RSI that still holds a divergence, and the channel floor is arriving at the same level within days. Those three factors together give buyers a defined place to make a stand.

Any rebound would still have to climb through a crowded stretch. The 200-day at $89, the 0.500 near $92.37 and the channel's upper rail, now near $95, are stacked above price. Beyond them, the rising 100-day SMA at $99.56 sits beside the 0.382 near $100.03 and the $100 mark, while the 50-day, down to $106.82, is still falling toward the 0.236 near $109.50 from above.

The two closes that matter

SOL sits about $2 under the 200-day and about $2.3 above the 0.618.

Above $89: If SOL holds the 0.618 and the rail while the RSI stays above 27.55, a daily close back over the 200-day would undo the November 8 break. The 0.500 near $92.37 and the upper rail near $95 come next, and a move out of the channel could reopen the 100-day at $99.56 and the $100 area.

Below $84.7: A daily close under the 0.618 and the rail, with the RSI slipping below 27.55, would remove the last horizontal shelf left from the August breakout. That could expose the $77 area where SOL traded in August and the 0.786 near $73.8, about 15% below the current price, with the June low of $59.9 beneath it.

The next few daily closes test whether the overlap near $85 lasts longer than the one at $89 did. Even a full climb back to the upper rail would leave SOL under both its 100-day and 50-day averages, with the September peak of $124.8 far above.

Source: Coindoo