Solana has been under persistent pressure over the past couple of weeks, trading in line with the broader cryptocurrency market as deteriorating macroeconomic conditions and rising oil prices weighed on risk sentiment. It is a reminder of crypto's standing as a risk-asset class: tokens have lately tended to move with rate expectations and energy prices rather than on project-specific developments.

On the fundamental side, the upcoming Alpenglow upgrade could prove to be a key catalyst. Scheduled for October 21, the consensus upgrade is designed to reduce transaction finality, improving Solana's performance for applications that require faster settlement. Settlement speed is a closely watched metric among builders of latency-sensitive applications, and the fixed October date gives the market a concrete network milestone to track alongside the macro calendar.

Mixed macro backdrop

On the macro side, higher-than-expected US inflation data triggered only minor changes in Federal Reserve rate hike expectations. The slightly dovish repricing further out the curve suggests the market may be starting to pay closer attention to the growth outlook.

Looking ahead, the Flash PMIs, the FOMC meeting, the US-Iran negotiations and the US midterm elections are the key catalysts on the calendar. If economic data begins pointing to deteriorating conditions, the market could grow increasingly worried about growth. That scenario would be negative for risk sentiment and could add further pressure on Solana and the cryptocurrency market in general.

What could drastically change the picture would be an end to the US-Iran war, as that would immediately improve both the growth outlook and risk sentiment.

Technical analysis – daily timeframe

On the daily chart, Solana is approaching a key support zone around 97.00 level. The analysis points to buyers stepping in at that area, with risk defined below the support, to position for a rally into the 148.00 level. Sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price break lower to extend bearish positioning toward the major upward trendline.

Technical analysis – 4-hour timeframe

On the 4-hour chart, a downward trendline continues to define the bearish momentum. Sellers are expected to lean on the trendline, with risk defined above it, to keep pushing the price into the 97.00 support. Buyers, meanwhile, will look for a break of the trendline to extend the pullback into the 113.00 level.

Technical analysis – 1-hour timeframe

On the 1-hour chart, the most recent swing low around the 104.50 level could act as minor support. Buyers may step in there, with risk defined below the level, to position for a break above the trendline. Sellers, in turn, will look for a break lower to increase bearish bets toward the 97.00 support. The red lines on the chart define the average daily range for today.

Bitcoin scenario back in focus

Bitcoin's recovery has put the $86,500 upside scenario from the video back in focus. In this Exness-powered investingLive Short, the analysis highlights the area between the 20-day and 50-day moving averages as a dynamic support zone, with the upper Bollinger Band marking a potential range target. The technical perspective behind that scenario remains worth watching as the market weighs whether support holds after the CPI-driven volatility. As the largest crypto asset, Bitcoin's levels also serve as a reference point for altcoins like Solana, which has tracked the broader complex through the recent pullback.