Solana (SOL), one of the most widely traded Layer-1 tokens, is trading in an increasingly narrow range near $76 after months of weakness, with two widely shared chart analyses framing the stakes: one maps a potential breakout path toward $170 and beyond, while the other argues the token has already formed its cycle bottom and could eventually climb above $1,000.

Cycle Comparison Points to $1,000+ as Trader Calls the Bottom

Solana may already have put in its cycle bottom, according to the analyst curb, who compares the current market structure with $SOL's previous cycle. In the trader's view, the longer decline from the latest cycle top strengthens the case for a recovery, with the chart projecting $SOL above $1,000.

Solana Cycle Comparison Projects $SOL Above $1,000. Source: curb (@CryptoCurb) on X

The analysis measures how long Solana spent falling from its previous cycle peak against the current cycle. During the last cycle, $SOL took 420 days to move from its cycle top to the bottom. That earlier decline ended in the aftermath of the November 2022 collapse of the FTX exchange, a selloff steepened by Solana's close association with FTX's sister firm Alameda Research, whose large SOL holdings left the token trading in single digits around that low. The rebound that followed eventually carried $SOL to fresh record highs, marking the cycle top the current chart measures against. In the current cycle, the chart shows 581 days have passed since the cycle top — considerably longer than the prior 420-day top-to-bottom period, and that timing comparison is the main argument underpinning the chart.

Cycle-duration comparisons of this kind borrow from the four-year framework popularized around Bitcoin's halving schedule; Solana has no halving of its own, so the elapsed-time parallel works as an analogy rather than a structural driver of price.

On that basis, curb believes Solana has already bottomed rather than preparing for another major dip. The chart marks the previous bottom and the expected current bottom with green circles, underscoring the similarity the trader sees between the two cycles. From the current area, the projected path turns sharply higher and eventually moves above $1,000.

curb expects traders waiting for another decline to eventually become buyers at higher prices if $SOL begins the projected recovery. His outlook therefore rests on the assumption that the current cycle low is already in place, and the $1,000+ target remains a projected scenario, not a confirmed price objective.

Price Squeezes Near $76 as Trader Watches for Crucial Breakout

On a shorter horizon, Solana is trading near the point where descending resistance and rising support converge, putting the focus on whether $SOL can finally break out of its tightening structure. Lucky says Solana is "desperate" for a crucial breakout, and the chart maps a bullish scenario if price clears the falling resistance line.

Solana Triangle Setup Shows Potential Breakout. Source: Lucky (@LLuciano_BTC) on X

The daily $SOL/USDT chart shows Solana near $75.93, with price compressed between a long-term descending resistance line and rising support. The two trendlines are moving closer together, leaving $SOL progressively less room to trade inside the pattern. Setups of this shape — a narrowing triangle — draw attention because the compression tends to resolve in a directional move once price escapes one of the trendlines, though the pattern alone does not indicate which way.

Below current price, the chart highlights a broader demand zone with a marked low at $60.14. That area has acted as the base for the rising support line since the June low.

On the upside, Lucky's chart marks a potential breakout above the descending resistance. The projected path points toward roughly $170, while the larger highlighted upside area extends as high as $253.44.

The bullish move, however, has not been confirmed on the chart. $SOL remains close to resistance, so the setup depends on price breaking above the descending trendline rather than continuing to trade beneath it. Chartists typically look for a decisive daily close above the trendline, accompanied by expanding volume, before treating a break out of a compression pattern as confirmed rather than an intraday poke above the line. For now, the chart shows Solana approaching a key technical decision point: a breakout would support the bullish path laid out by Lucky, while failure to clear resistance would leave $SOL inside the tightening structure and keep the support area below in focus.

Source: CryptoNewsNet; original analysis via Coinpaper