SoFi Technologies (SOFI) heads into Wednesday’s second-quarter earnings report under pressure. The stock is down nearly 38% year to date and was trading around $16.88, putting it much closer to its 52-week low of $14.92 than its high of $32.73.

Wall Street expects earnings per share of $0.11, up 37.5% from a year earlier, on revenue of $1.13 billion, which would represent a 31.7% increase from the same period last year. Even so, that would mark a modest sequential decline from the first quarter, when SoFi reported EPS of $0.12 and revenue of $1.10 billion.

In the first quarter, revenue topped estimates by $50 million and the company added 1.1 million new members. Investors will be watching to see whether that momentum continued into the second quarter, especially because SoFi’s growth story depends not just on headline revenue, but on whether new customers keep entering the platform and using multiple products over time.

Among the 23 analysts covering SOFI, seven rate the stock a buy, 12 rate it a hold, and four rate it a sell. The consensus price target is $20.63, which implies roughly 22% upside from current levels.

Seeking Alpha analysts are more constructive, assigning SoFi a Strong Buy rating. Analyst Krzysztof Bogdanski valued the stock at $22 to $26, citing strong product-per-member growth and fee diversification.

By contrast, Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating places SOFI at Sell, while Truist rates the stock Hold with a $18 price target.

Truist analyst Matthew Coad said the second half of 2026 could become a headwind. He cited slowing personal loan originations across the industry and weakening private credit demand for longer-duration consumer loans as risks to SoFi’s origination growth and gain-on-sale rate.

Margins in Focus

Revenue may not be the most important number in Wednesday’s report. Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance for the second quarter is about 30%, compared with 31.3% in the first quarter. SoFi’s long-term target remains around 38%, leaving a sizable gap between current performance and management’s goal.

An upside surprise on margins could help support the stock after its recent decline. A miss would likely add further pressure.

Chief Financial Officer Chris Lapointe guided for an adjusted net income margin of 12% to 13% for the second quarter, which translates to roughly $0.10 to $0.11 in EPS. That range is essentially in line with consensus.

Loan Originations and Member Engagement

SoFi reported record loan originations of $12.18 billion in the first quarter, up 68% year over year. That makes the second-quarter comparison a difficult one, and it also means investors will be looking for signs that growth remains broad-based rather than reliant on a single lending category.

The company also recently launched Composer by SoFi, an AI-powered investing platform that allows users to build and execute investment strategies using plain language.

Member cross-sell trends will also draw attention. In the first quarter, 43% of new products were taken up by existing members, an important measure of SoFi’s long-term economics because it indicates how effectively the company can deepen relationships after the initial sign-up.

Over the past two years, SoFi has beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time and revenue estimates 100% of the time. In the past three months, EPS estimates have seen no upward revisions and seven downward revisions, while revenue estimates have seen two upward revisions and 14 downward revisions.

SoFi trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 27, with projected EPS growth of 62%.