A survey of Swiss bankers shows unanimous agreement that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will keep its policy rate at 0% for the remainder of this year. The policy rate was cut to 0% in June 2025, returning to the level at which the central bank operated for years after first going negative in 2015.

Looking further ahead to 2027, 60% of respondents expect the rate to remain at 0% throughout the whole of next year. The remaining respondents take the opposite view, anticipating that the SNB will begin hiking interest rates in 2027 instead. Among those expecting a hike, all but one respondent foresee the policy rate rising to 0.25%, with the single outlier projecting a move to 0.50% by the end of next year.

The split in expectations stands out against the broader global backdrop. While inflation pressures have been growing worldwide, Switzerland has largely not followed that trend. The country's latest inflation figures continue to point to deflationary risks rather than inflationary ones—a pattern consistent with Switzerland's long-running experience of softer price pressures than the euro area or the United States, a dynamic often linked to the Swiss franc's strength and the currency's role as a safe haven in times of global stress.

For now, policymakers can draw some comfort from the fact that inflation has not yet crossed toward the zero mark or into negative territory. That resilience is likely attributable in part to the US-Iran conflict, which has helped prop up price pressures globally. Without that spillover effect, Switzerland's situation this year could have looked considerably different.

The SNB previously benefited from a reprieve during the Covid pandemic but did not capitalize on it. Analysts at ForexLive note that it may only be a matter of time before the deflation conversation and the prospect of unconventional monetary policy settings—such as negative interest rate policy (NIRP) and/or quantitative easing (QE)—return to the agenda. The SNB has form on this front: it charged banks to hold deposits between 2015 and 2022, giving it direct experience with subzero rates before lifting them during the post-pandemic inflation surge. The ForexLive analysts also observe that, in the bigger picture, the balance of risks for Switzerland still appears tilted to the downside, given the country's less obvious upside spillover compared with elsewhere.

The practical stakes for markets are straightforward: with the policy rate already at zero, the SNB has little conventional room to ease further, which is why any drift back toward sustained negative inflation would put tools such as FX interventions, NIRP, or QE back at the center of the debate at upcoming policy meetings.

Related: Swiss inflation holds steady in July as threat of deflation remains